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      Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

          The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
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            Is Open Access

            GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture

            The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) is a set of algorithms dedicated to the estimation of terrestrial evaporation and root-zone soil moisture from satellite data. Ever since its development in 2011, the model has been regularly revised, aiming at the optimal incorporation of new satellite-observed geophysical variables, and improving the representation of physical processes. In this study, the next version of this model (v3) is presented. Key changes relative to the previous version include (1) a revised formulation of the evaporative stress, (2) an optimized drainage algorithm, and (3) a new soil moisture data assimilation system. GLEAM v3 is used to produce three new data sets of terrestrial evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, including a 36-year data set spanning 1980–2015, referred to as v3a (based on satellite-observed soil moisture, vegetation optical depth and snow-water equivalent, reanalysis air temperature and radiation, and a multi-source precipitation product), and two satellite-based data sets. The latter share most of their forcing, except for the vegetation optical depth and soil moisture, which are based on observations from different passive and active C- and L-band microwave sensors (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, ESA CCI) for the v3b data set (spanning 2003–2015) and observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite in the v3c data set (spanning 2011–2015). Here, these three data sets are described in detail, compared against analogous data sets generated using the previous version of GLEAM (v2), and validated against measurements from 91 eddy-covariance towers and 2325 soil moisture sensors across a broad range of ecosystems. Results indicate that the quality of the v3 soil moisture is consistently better than the one from v2: average correlations against in situ surface soil moisture measurements increase from 0.61 to 0.64 in the case of the v3a data set and the representation of soil moisture in the second layer improves as well, with correlations increasing from 0.47 to 0.53. Similar improvements are observed for the v3b and c data sets. Despite regional differences, the quality of the evaporation fluxes remains overall similar to the one obtained using the previous version of GLEAM, with average correlations against eddy-covariance measurements ranging between 0.78 and 0.81 for the different data sets. These global data sets of terrestrial evaporation and root-zone soil moisture are now openly available at www.GLEAM.eu and may be used for large-scale hydrological applications, climate studies, or research on land–atmosphere feedbacks.
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              Global warming and 21st century drying

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nature
                Nature
                Springer Nature
                0028-0836
                1476-4687
                May 2019
                May 1 2019
                May 2019
                : 569
                : 7754
                : 59-65
                Article
                10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
                31043729
                c353ef0d-0f16-4bd0-9b39-ee2e7497df36
                © 2019

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

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