Direct long-distance dispersal shapes a New World amphitropical disjunction in the dispersal-limited dung mossTetraplodon(Bryopsida: Splachnaceae)

Rates of molecular evolution vary widely between lineages, but quantification of how rates change has proven difficult. Recently proposed estimation procedures have mainly adopted highly parametric approaches that model rate evolution explicitly. In this study, a semiparametric smoothing method is developed using penalized likelihood. A saturated model in which every lineage has a separate rate is combined with a roughness penalty that discourages rates from varying too much across a phylogeny. A data-driven cross-validation criterion is then used to determine an optimal level of smoothing. This criterion is based on an estimate of the average prediction error associated with pruning lineages from the tree. The methods are applied to three data sets of six genes across a sample of land plants. Optimally smoothed estimates of absolute rates entailed 2- to 10-fold variation across lineages.

Tests of hypotheses about the biogeographical consequences of long-distance dispersal have long eluded biologists, largely because of the rarity and presumed unpredictability of such events. Here, we examine data for terrestrial (including littoral) organisms in the Pacific to show that knowledge of dispersal by wind, birds and oceanic drift or rafting, coupled with information about the natural environment and biology of the organisms, can be used to generate broad biogeographic predictions. We then examine the predictions in the context of the origin, frequency of arrival and location of establishment of dispersed organisms, as well as subsequent patterns of endemism and diversification on remote islands. The predicted patterns are being increasingly supported by phylogenetic data for both terrestrial and littoral organisms. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographical distributions of terrestrial or freshwater taxa that are broken up by oceans can be explained by either oceanic dispersal or vicariance in the form of fragmentation of a previously contiguous landmass. The validation of plate-tectonics theory provided a global vicariance mechanism and, along with cladistic arguments for the primacy of vicariance, helped create a view of oceanic dispersal as a rare phenomenon and an explanation of last resort. Here, I describe recent work that suggests that the importance of oceanic dispersal has been strongly underestimated. In particular, molecular dating of lineage divergences favors oceanic dispersal over tectonic vicariance as an explanation for disjunct distributions in a wide variety of taxa, from frogs to beetles to baobab trees. Other evidence, such as substantial gene flow among island populations of Anolis lizards, also indicates unexpectedly high frequencies of oceanic dispersal. The resurrection of oceanic dispersal is the most striking aspect of a major shift in historical biogeography toward a more even balance between vicariance and dispersal explanations. This new view implies that biotas are more dynamic and have more recent origins than had been thought previously. A high frequency of dispersal also suggests that a fundamental methodological assumption of many biogeographical studies--that vicariance is a priori a more probable explanation than dispersal--needs to be re-evaluated and perhaps discarded.