Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Abstract

<p id="d6881354e143">Exposure to extreme temperatures and high levels of the pollutants ozone and particulate matter poses a major threat to human health. Heat waves and pollution episodes share common underlying meteorological drivers and thus often coincide, which can synergistically worsen their health impacts beyond the sum of their individual effects. Furthermore, there is evidence that pollution episodes and heat waves will worsen under future climate change, making it imperative to understand the nature of their co-occurrence. In this paper, using 15 years of surface observations over the eastern United States and Canada, we show that the extremes cluster together in often overlapping large-scale episodes, and that the largest episodes have the hottest temperatures and highest levels of pollution. </p><p class="first" id="d6881354e146">Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999–2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April–September) surface ozone (O ₃), fine particulate matter (PM _2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of &gt;1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O ₃, +6 µg m ⁻³ for PM _2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health. </p>