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      The dirty little secret of urate-lowering therapy: useless to stop chronic kidney disease progression and may increase mortality

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          Abstract

          Hyperuricaemia is frequent in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Observational studies have shown an association with adverse outcomes and acquired hyperuricaemia (meaning serum urate levels as low as 1.0 mg/dL) in animal models induces kidney injury. This evidence does not justify the widespread use of urate-lowering drugs for asymptomatic hyperuricaemia in CKD. However, promising results from small, open-label studies led some physicians to prescribe urate-lowering drugs to slow CKD progression. Two recent, large, placebo-controlled trials (CKD-FIX and PERL) showed no benefit from urate lowering with allopurinol on the primary endpoint of CKD progression, confirming prior negative results. Despite these negative findings, it was still argued that the study population could be optimized by enrolling younger non-proteinuric CKD patients with better preserved glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, in these low-risk patients, GFR may be stable under placebo conditions. Additionally, the increased mortality trends already identified in gout trials of urate-lowering therapy were also observed in CKD-FIX and PERL, sending a strong safety signal: 21/449 (4.7%) and 10/444 (2.2%) patients died in the combined allopurinol and placebo groups, respectively [chi-squared P-value 0.048; relative risk 2.07 (95% CI 0.98–4.34); P = 0.06]. Given the absent evidence of benefit in multiple clinical trials and the potentially serious safety issues, the clear message should be that urate-lowering therapy should not be prescribed for the indication of slowing CKD progression. Additionally, regulatory agencies should urgently reassess the safety of chronic prescription of urate-lowering drugs for any indication.

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          A new equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate.

          Equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are routinely used to assess kidney function. Current equations have limited precision and systematically underestimate measured GFR at higher values. To develop a new estimating equation for GFR: the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. Cross-sectional analysis with separate pooled data sets for equation development and validation and a representative sample of the U.S. population for prevalence estimates. Research studies and clinical populations ("studies") with measured GFR and NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1999 to 2006. 8254 participants in 10 studies (equation development data set) and 3896 participants in 16 studies (validation data set). Prevalence estimates were based on 16,032 participants in NHANES. GFR, measured as the clearance of exogenous filtration markers (iothalamate in the development data set; iothalamate and other markers in the validation data set), and linear regression to estimate the logarithm of measured GFR from standardized creatinine levels, sex, race, and age. In the validation data set, the CKD-EPI equation performed better than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation, especially at higher GFR (P < 0.001 for all subsequent comparisons), with less bias (median difference between measured and estimated GFR, 2.5 vs. 5.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), improved precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the differences, 16.6 vs. 18.3 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), and greater accuracy (percentage of estimated GFR within 30% of measured GFR, 84.1% vs. 80.6%). In NHANES, the median estimated GFR was 94.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (IQR, 79.7 to 108.1) vs. 85.0 (IQR, 72.9 to 98.5) mL/min per 1.73 m(2), and the prevalence of chronic kidney disease was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.6% to 12.4%) versus 13.1% (CI, 12.1% to 14.0%). The sample contained a limited number of elderly people and racial and ethnic minorities with measured GFR. The CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation and could replace it for routine clinical use. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
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            Empagliflozin and Progression of Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes.

            Diabetes confers an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular and renal events. In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for cardiovascular events. We wanted to determine the long-term renal effects of empagliflozin, an analysis that was a prespecified component of the secondary microvascular outcome of that trial.
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              Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories

              Summary Background Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts —and alternative future scenarios—for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. Methods We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990–2016, to generate predictions for 2017–40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990–2006 and using these to forecast for 2007–16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990–2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. Findings Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (–2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [–2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2–190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016–40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9–72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3–58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. Interpretation With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future—a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios—or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Clin Kidney J
                Clin Kidney J
                ckj
                Clinical Kidney Journal
                Oxford University Press
                2048-8505
                2048-8513
                December 2020
                16 September 2020
                16 September 2020
                : 13
                : 6
                : 936-947
                Affiliations
                [1 ] IIS-Fundacion Jimenez Diaz UAM and School of Medicine, UAM , Madrid, Spain
                [2 ] GEENDIAB
                [3 ] REDINREN , Madrid, Spain
                [4 ] Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Koc University School of Medicine , Istanbul, Turkey
                Author notes

                Guillermo Gonzalez-Martin1 and Jaime Cano contributed equally to this work.

                Vanessa Perez-Gomez, Raul Fernandez-Prado and Alberto Ortiz contributed equally to this work.

                Correspondence to: Maria Vanessa Perez-Gomez, Raul Fernandez-Prado, Alberto Ortiz; E-mail: mvanessa@ 123456fjd.es , raul.fernandezp@ 123456quironsalud.es , aortiz@ 123456fjd.es
                Article
                sfaa236
                10.1093/ckj/sfaa236
                7769546
                33391737
                c4992c5c-e1ea-465e-80a6-1ff32d4f0b21
                © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

                History
                : 28 October 2020
                : 28 October 2020
                Page count
                Pages: 12
                Funding
                Funded by: FIS/Fondos FEDER;
                Award ID: PI17/00257
                Award ID: PI18/01386
                Award ID: PI19/00588
                Award ID: PI19/00815
                Award ID: DTS18/00032
                Funded by: ERA-PerMed-JTC2018;
                Award ID: KIDNEY ATTACK AC18/00064
                Award ID: PERSTIGAN AC18/00071
                Award ID: ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009
                Funded by: Sociedad Española de Nefrología, DOI 10.13039/100015883;
                Funded by: FRIAT;
                Funded by: Comunidad de Madrid en Biomedicina;
                Award ID: B2017/BMD-3686
                Categories
                Editorial Comments
                AcademicSubjects/MED00340

                Nephrology
                allopurinol,asymptomatic hyperuricaemia,chronic kidney disease,febuxostat,gout,mortality,urate
                Nephrology
                allopurinol, asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, chronic kidney disease, febuxostat, gout, mortality, urate

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