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      Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms

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          Abstract

          Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the North Atlantic and passing over Europe. Previous statistical studies tend to model extreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in a Eulerian framework. Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle and progression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to make restrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure. We take an entirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in a Lagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms over time, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and the cyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding that the spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localised as its magnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track. Our model allows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the joint distributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistent extrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates of this hazard can be achieved both in terms of intensity and area affected.

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          New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks

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            Feature Tracking on the Unit Sphere

            K. Hodges (1995)
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              Can Climate Models Capture the Structure of Extratropical Cyclones?

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                07 June 2019
                Article
                1906.03178
                c4d81f90-72d1-45dd-8057-82e812716f42

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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                35 pages
                stat.AP

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