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      Predator-prey dynamics and the plasticity of predator body size

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      Functional Ecology
      Wiley-Blackwell

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          Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems.

          Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here, we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton, and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys, experimental data and published results, we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature-size relationships (i.e., Bergmann's rule, James' rule and Temperature-Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events.
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            Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood.

            Mathematical description of biological reaction networks by differential equations leads to large models whose parameters are calibrated in order to optimally explain experimental data. Often only parts of the model can be observed directly. Given a model that sufficiently describes the measured data, it is important to infer how well model parameters are determined by the amount and quality of experimental data. This knowledge is essential for further investigation of model predictions. For this reason a major topic in modeling is identifiability analysis. We suggest an approach that exploits the profile likelihood. It enables to detect structural non-identifiabilities, which manifest in functionally related model parameters. Furthermore, practical non-identifiabilities are detected, that might arise due to limited amount and quality of experimental data. Last but not least confidence intervals can be derived. The results are easy to interpret and can be used for experimental planning and for model reduction. An implementation is freely available for MATLAB and the PottersWheel modeling toolbox at http://web.me.com/andreas.raue/profile/software.html. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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              Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Functional Ecology
                Funct Ecol
                Wiley-Blackwell
                02698463
                April 2014
                April 2014
                : 28
                : 2
                : 487-493
                Article
                10.1111/1365-2435.12199
                c4fadb92-2c6a-45aa-8d0b-1ceced0e9f78
                © 2014

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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