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      The Time Trend Temperature–Mortality as a Factor of Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves: Wu et al. Respond

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          Abstract

          We thank Linares et al. for their interest in our article and for broadening the discussion on the uncertainties in predicting the health impact of future heat waves. Linares et al. pointed out that the possible evolution over time can take place both in minimum mortality temperatures related to heat waves and in the modifications of these possible impacts due to socioeconomic improvements. Although such considerations were beyond the scope of our published analysis (Wu et al. 2014), we agree that socioeconomic and demographic factors can have profound impacts on the estimated excess mortality in a changing climate. A heat wave is defined as a period of consecutive days with temperatures exceeding a certain threshold based on physiologic effects (Robinson 2001). The threshold temperature is usually calculated based on local historical data, which can vary in both time and space. Linares et al. suggested that heat wave definition temperatures might be reduced to a consequence of population aging in time. Given these changes in the threshold temperature over time, the heat wave definition would indeed add an additional layer of uncertainty to the predicted health impact of future heat waves on top of what we have characterized in the paper. Such uncertainty, however, is difficult to quantify without detailed data on the structure of future populations, especially age. So far, the U.S. Census Bureau (2012) has issued only national-level, age-specific population projections. The health impacts of heat waves can be modified by many factors, such as race, age, sex, socioeconomic status, and geographic location (Hajat and Kosatky 2010). The changing impacts of heat waves on cardiovascular/circulatory and respiratory mortality (Ha and Kim, 2013; Mirón et al. 2008) seem to be related to the improvements in health care services and living conditions over time. These trends may be generalizable in space if we are willing to assume that the U.S. health care system has improved its service to cardiovascular patients over the years in a fashion similar to that of Spain, Italy, or other developed countries. However, it may not be justifiable to extrapolate them in time because the impact of these improvements is likely to taper off unless significant technological advancement takes place in the future. In addition, early warning systems and adaptation strategies can strongly influence the impact of heat waves on a society (Lowe et al. 2011). However, the relative risk of heat waves must be estimated using existing health data records, making it very difficult to take any adaptation measures into consideration because we lack such examples in the past. In our study, we set future baseline mortality rate and relative health risk of heat waves as constant because robust estimates of these parameters for the 2050s are unavailable. Further research is needed to address these issues in order to provide a more comprehensive and realistic evaluation of the impact of future heat waves.

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          Most cited references6

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          Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

          Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.
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            Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

            Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16;  http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670
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              Changes in the association between summer temperature and mortality in Seoul, South Korea.

              The health impact of climate change depends on various conditions at any given time and place, as well as on the person. Temporal variations in the relationship between high temperature and mortality need to be explored in depth to explain how changes in the level of exposure and public health interventions modify the temperature-mortality relationship. We examined changes in the relationship between human mortality and temperature in Seoul, which has the highest population in South Korea, considering the change in population structure from 1993-2009. Poisson regression models were used to estimate short-term temperature-related mortality impacts. Temperature-related risks were divided into two "time periods" of approximately equal length (1993 and 1995-2000, and 2001-2009), and were also examined according to early summer and late summer. Temperature-related mortality in summer over the past 17 years has declined. These decreasing patterns were stronger for cardiovascular disease-related mortality than for all non-accidental deaths. The novel finding is that declines in temperature-related mortality were particularly noteworthy in late summer. Our results indicate that temperature-related mortality is decreasing in Seoul, particularly during late summer and, to a lesser extent, during early summer. This information would be useful for detailed public health preparedness for hot weather.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Environ Health Perspect
                Environ. Health Perspect
                EHP
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                NLM-Export
                0091-6765
                1552-9924
                01 May 2014
                May 2014
                : 122
                : 5
                : A118-A119
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
                [2 ]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
                [3 ]Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
                [4 ]Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
                [5 ]Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
                Author notes
                Article
                ehp.1308042R
                10.1289/ehp.1308042R
                4014773
                24784327
                c55bb09f-bad0-4523-ab33-25b11b54929a

                Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright.

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                Public health

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