On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity

Balaji, V.; Vecchi, G. A.; Delworth, T.; Gudgel, R.; Kapnick, S.; Rosati, A.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Zeng, F.; Anderson, W.; Dixon, K.; Jia, L; Kim, H-S.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Msadek, R.; Stern, W. F.; Underwood, S. D.; Villarini, G.; Yang, X.; Zhang, S.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1

Record: found
Abstract: not found
Article: not found

On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity

Author(s): G. A. Vecchi , T. Delworth , R. Gudgel , S. Kapnick , A. Rosati , A. T. Wittenberg , F. Zeng , W. Anderson , V. Balaji , K. Dixon , L. Jia , H.-S. Kim , L. Krishnamurthy , R. Msadek , W. F. Stern , S. D. Underwood , G. Villarini , X. Yang , S. Zhang

Publication date Created: November 2014

Publication date (Print): November 2014

Journal: Journal of Climate

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Read this article at

ScienceOpenPublisher

Bookmark

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

Abstract

Related collections

Most cited references 80

Record: found
Abstract: not found
Article: not found

The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)

Kenneth Knapp, Michael C. Kruk, David Levinson … (2010)

0 comments Cited 621 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Robert E Tuleya … (2010)

Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.