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      On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity

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          The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)

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            Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

            Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
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              Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Influences

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                J. Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                November 2014
                November 2014
                : 27
                : 21
                : 7994-8016
                Article
                10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1
                c5f7386e-ae97-4697-890f-7445156006ee
                © 2014
                History

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