ALPINE: A Bayesian System for Cloud Performance Diagnosis and Prediction

Abstract

Cloud performance diagnosis and prediction is a challenging problem due to the stochastic nature of the cloud systems. Cloud performance is affected by a large set of factors including (but not limited to) virtual machine types, regions, workloads, wide area network delay and bandwidth. Therefore, necessitating the determination of complex relationships between these factors. The current research in this area does not address the challenge of building models that capture the uncertain and complex relationships between these factors. Further, the challenge of cloud performance prediction under uncertainty has not garnered sufficient attention. This paper proposes develops and validates ALPINE, a Bayesian system for cloud performance diagnosis and prediction. ALPINE incorporates Bayesian networks to model uncertain and complex relationships between several factors mentioned above. It handles missing, scarce and sparse data to diagnose and predict stochastic cloud performance efficiently. We validate our proposed system using extensive real data and trace-driven analysis and show that it predicts cloud performance with high accuracy of 91.93%.