Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather: Implications for Prediction

Thompson, David W J; Baldwin, Mark P.; Wallace, John M

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1421:SCTNHW>2.0.CO;2

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Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather: Implications for Prediction

Author(s): David W. J. Thompson , Mark P. Baldwin , John M. Wallace

Publication date Created: June 2002

Publication date (Print): June 2002

Journal: Journal of Climate

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

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Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.

Mark P. Baldwin, Timothy J. Dunkerton (2001)

Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above approximately 50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.