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      The metabolic syndrome as predictor of type 2 diabetes: the San Antonio heart study.

      Diabetes Care

      Adult, Blood Glucose, Body Mass Index, Diabetes Mellitus, diagnosis, epidemiology, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Fasting, Female, Glucose Tolerance Test, Humans, Incidence, Insulin, blood, Male, Metabolic Syndrome X, Middle Aged, Obesity, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, Sensitivity and Specificity

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          Abstract

          The oral glucose tolerance test identifies high-risk subjects for diabetes, but it is costly and inconvenient. To find better predictors of type 2 diabetes, we evaluated two different definitions of the metabolic syndrome because insulin resistance, which is commonly associated with this clustering of metabolic factors, frequently precedes the onset of type 2 diabetes. We compared the ability of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition, a modified version of the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) definition that excludes the 2-h glucose requirement, and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) to predict incident type 2 diabetes. In the San Antonio Heart Study, 1734 participants completed a 7- to 8-year follow-up examination. IGT and the NCEP definition had higher sensitivity than the modified WHO definition (51.9, 52.8, and 42.8%, respectively). IGT had a higher positive predictive value than the NCEP and modified WHO definitions (43.0, 30.8, and 30.4%, respectively). The combination of the IGT and NCEP definitions increased the sensitivity to 70.8% with an acceptable positive predictive value of 29.7%. Risk for incidence of type 2 diabetes using the NCEP definition was independent of other risk factors, including IGT and fasting insulin (odds ratio 3.30, 95% CI 2.27-4.80). The NCEP definition performed better with fasting glucose >or=5.4 mmol/l (sensitivity 62.0% and positive predictive value 30.9%). The metabolic syndrome predicts diabetes independently of other factors. However, the NCEP definition performs better than the modified 1999 WHO definition. Lowering the fasting glucose cutoff to 5.4 mmol/l improves the prediction of diabetes by the metabolic syndrome.

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          Most cited references 17

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          Acarbose for prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the STOP-NIDDM randomised trial.

          The worldwide increase in type 2 diabetes mellitus is becoming a major health concern. We aimed to assess the effect of acarbose in preventing or delaying conversion of impaired glucose tolerance to type 2 diabetes. In a multicentre, placebo-controlled randomised trial, we randomly allocated patients with impaired glucose tolerance to 100 mg acarbose or placebo three times daily. The primary endpoint was development of diabetes on the basis of a yearly oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Analyses were by intention to treat. We randomly allocated 714 patients with impaired glucose tolerance to acarbose and 715 to placebo. We excluded 61 (4%) patients because they did not have impaired glucose tolerance or had no postrandomisation data. 211 (31%) of 682 patients in the acarbose group and 130 (19%) of 686 on placebo discontinued treatment early. 221 (32%) patients randomised to acarbose and 285 (42%) randomised to placebo developed diabetes (relative hazard 0.75 [95% CI 0.63-0.90]; p=0.0015). Furthermore, acarbose significantly increased reversion of impaired glucose tolerance to normal glucose tolerance (p<0.0001). At the end of the study, treatment with placebo for 3 months was associated with an increase in conversion of impaired glucose tolerance to diabetes. The most frequent side-effects to acarbose treatment were flatulence and diarrhoea. Acarbose could be used, either as an alternative or in addition to changes in lifestyle, to delay development of type 2 diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance.
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            Hypertension prevalence and blood pressure levels in 6 European countries, Canada, and the United States.

            Geographic variations in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated risk factors have been recognized worldwide. However, little attention has been directed to potential differences in hypertension between Europe and North America. To determine whether higher blood pressure (BP) levels and hypertension are more prevalent in Europe than in the United States and Canada. Sample surveys that were national in scope and conducted in the 1990s were identified in Germany, Finland, Sweden, England, Spain, Italy, Canada, and the United States. Collaborating investigators provided tabular data in a consistent format by age and sex for persons at least 35 years of age. Population registries were the main basis for sampling. Survey sizes ranged from 1800 to 23 100, with response rates of 61% to 87.5%. The data were analyzed to provide age-specific and age-adjusted estimates of BP and hypertension prevalence by country and region (eg, European vs North American). Blood pressure levels and prevalence of hypertension in Europe, the United States, and Canada. Average BP was 136/83 mm Hg in the European countries and 127/77 mm Hg in Canada and the United States among men and women combined who were 35 to 74 years of age. This difference already existed among younger persons (35-39 years) in whom treatment was uncommon (ie, 124/78 mm Hg and 115/75 mm Hg, respectively), and the slope with age was steeper in the European countries. For all age groups, BP measurements were lowest in the United States and highest in Germany. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 28% in the North American countries and 44% in the European countries at the 140/90 mm Hg threshold. The findings for men and women by region were similar. Hypertension prevalence was strongly correlated with stroke mortality (r = 0.78) and more modestly with total CVD (r = 0.44). Despite extensive research on geographic patterns of CVD, the 60% higher prevalence of hypertension in Europe compared with the United States and Canada has not been generally appreciated. The implication of this finding for national prevention strategies should be vigorously explored.
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              Onset of NIDDM occurs at least 4-7 yr before clinical diagnosis.

              To investigate duration of the period between diabetes onset and its clinical diagnosis. Two population-based groups of white patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM) in the United States and Australia were studied. Prevalence of retinopathy and duration of diabetes subsequent to clinical diagnosis were determined for all subjects. Weighted linear regression was used to examine the relationship between diabetes duration and prevalence of retinopathy. Prevalence of retinopathy at clinical diagnosis of diabetes was estimated to be 20.8% in the U.S. and 9.9% in Australia and increased linearly with longer duration of diabetes. By extrapolating this linear relationship to the time when retinopathy prevalence was estimated to be zero, onset of detectable retinopathy was calculated to have occurred approximately 4-7 yr before diagnosis of NIDDM. Because other data indicate that diabetes may be present for 5 yr before retinopathy becomes evident, onset of NIDDM may occur 9-12 yr before its clinical diagnosis. These findings suggest that undiagnosed NIDDM is not a benign condition. Clinically significant morbidity is present at diagnosis and for years before diagnosis. During this preclinical period, treatment is not being offered for diabetes or its specific complications, despite the fact that reduction in hyperglycemia, hypertension, and cardiovascular risk factors is believed to benefit patients. Imprecise dating of diabetes onset also obscures investigations of the etiology of NIDDM and studies of the nature and importance of risk factors for diabetes complications.
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