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      Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)

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          Abstract

          At the global level, maize is the third most important crop on the basis of harvested area. Given its importance, an assessment of the variation in regional climatic suitability under climate change is critical. CliMond 10′ data were used to model the potential current and future climate distribution of maize at the global level using the CLIMEX distribution model with climate data from two general circulation models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2050 and 2100. The change in area under future climate was analysed at continental level and for major maize-producing countries of the world. Regions between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn indicate the highest loss of climatic suitability, contrary to poleward regions that exhibit an increase of suitability. South America shows the highest loss of climatic suitability, followed by Africa and Oceania. Asia, Europe and North America exhibit an increase in climatic suitability. This study indicates that globally, large areas that are currently suitable for maize cultivation will suffer from heat and dry stresses that may constrain production. For the first time, a model was applied worldwide, allowing for a better understanding of areas that are suitable and that may remain suitable for maize.

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          Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.

          Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
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            CliMond: global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling

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              The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                nramirez@myune.edu.au
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                19 July 2017
                19 July 2017
                2017
                : 7
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7371, GRID grid.1020.3, Ecosystem Management. School of Environmental and Rural Science, , University of New England, ; Armidale, NSW 2351 Australia
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2170 5278, GRID grid.473362.7, , INIFAP, Campo Experimental Zacatecas, ; Km, 24.5 Carretera Zacatecas-Fresnillo, 98500 Calera de V.R., Zacatecas Mexico
                Article
                5804
                10.1038/s41598-017-05804-0
                5517596
                c6fa01cd-e982-4f9e-9a11-374ff2bbb2a5
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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