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      Potential Geographic Distribution of Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Invasion ( Halyomorpha halys)

      research-article
      1 , * , 2 , 2 , 2
      PLoS ONE
      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          Background

          The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies.

          Methodology/Principals

          We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).

          Conclusions/Significance

          Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°–50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.

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          Most cited references55

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          Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems.

          J Swets (1988)
          Diagnostic systems of several kinds are used to distinguish between two classes of events, essentially "signals" and "noise". For them, analysis in terms of the "relative operating characteristic" of signal detection theory provides a precise and valid measure of diagnostic accuracy. It is the only measure available that is uninfluenced by decision biases and prior probabilities, and it places the performances of diverse systems on a common, easily interpreted scale. Representative values of this measure are reported here for systems in medical imaging, materials testing, weather forecasting, information retrieval, polygraph lie detection, and aptitude testing. Though the measure itself is sound, the values obtained from tests of diagnostic systems often require qualification because the test data on which they are based are of unsure quality. A common set of problems in testing is faced in all fields. How well these problems are handled, or can be handled in a given field, determines the degree of confidence that can be placed in a measured value of accuracy. Some fields fare much better than others.
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            Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time

            Theory predicts low niche differentiation between species over evolutionary time scales, but little empirical evidence is available. Reciprocal geographic predictions based on ecological niche models of sister taxon pairs of birds, mammals, and butterflies in southern Mexico indicate niche conservatism over several million years of independent evolution (between putative sister taxon pairs) but little conservatism at the level of families. Niche conservatism over such time scales indicates that speciation takes place in geographic, not ecological, dimensions and that ecological differences evolve later.
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              Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

              Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2012
                21 February 2012
                : 7
                : 2
                : e31246
                Affiliations
                [1 ]College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
                [2 ]College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
                University of Western Ontario, Canada
                Author notes

                Conceived and designed the experiments: GZ WB YG. Performed the experiments: GZ WB. Analyzed the data: GZ WB. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: GZ WB. Wrote the paper: GZ GL YG. Nihce theory discussion: YG. Occurrence records validation: WB.

                Article
                PONE-D-11-20988
                10.1371/journal.pone.0031246
                3283620
                22363595
                c8156860-653d-4422-8678-6d3b3679a04f
                Zhu et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 22 October 2011
                : 5 January 2012
                Page count
                Pages: 10
                Categories
                Research Article
                Agriculture
                Pest Control
                Biology
                Ecology
                Community Ecology
                Evolutionary Biology
                Zoology
                Computer Science
                Algorithms
                Mathematics
                Applied Mathematics

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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