Operational extreme weather event attribution can quantify climate change loss and damages

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Abstract

“It is now well established that the influence of anthropogenic climate change on certain individual extreme weather events can be quantified by event attribution techniques. It is time that these activities move from the research community to the operational centers. Such routine evaluation of the human influence on extreme weather increases our scientific understanding and informs the public of climate change impacts. Furthermore, quantification of the human influence on extreme weather can be used to fairly evaluate climate change induced loss and damages”.

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Most cited references 12

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Is Open Access

A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses

Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert van Oldenborgh … (2020)

Abstract. Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. This article documents this protocol. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service.