International incidence and mortality trends of liver cancer: a global profile

Abstract

We examined the global incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer, and evaluated the association between incidence/mortality and socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP]) using linear regression analysis. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of the trends was evaluated from join-point regression analysis. The global incidence of liver cancer varied widely by nine-fold, and was negatively correlated with HDI (men: r = −0.232, p = 0.003; women: r = −0.369, p < 0.001) and GDP per capita (men: r = −0.164, p = 0.036; women: r = −0.212, p = 0.007). Its mortality showed a similarly negative correlation with both indices. The greatest incidence rise in men was observed in Poland (AAPC = 17.5, 95% C.I. = 5.6, 30.9) and Brazil (AAPC = 13.2, 95% C.I. = 5.9, 21.0), whereas Germany (AAPC = 6.6, 95% C.I = 2.0, 11.5) and Norway (AAPC = 6.5, 95% C.I. = 3.2, 10.0) had the greatest increase in women. The mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates in most countries. For mortality, Malta (AAPC = 11.5, 95% C.I. = 3.9, 19.8), Australia (AAPC = 6.8, 95% C.I. = 2.2, 11.5) and Norway (APCC = 5.6, 95% C.I. = 2.8, 8.5) reported the biggest increase among men; whilst Australia (AAPC = 13.4, 95% C.I. = 7.8, 19.4) and Singapore (AAPC = 7.7, 95% C.I. = 4.1, 11.5) showed the most prominent rise among women. These epidemiological data identified countries with potentially increasing trends of liver cancer for preventive actions.