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      Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India: A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience

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          Abstract

          India experienced a massive surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during April to June 2021 despite having controlled the epidemic relatively well during 2020. Using counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models, we produce evidence in support of how strengthening public health interventions early would have helped control transmission in the country and significantly reduced mortality during the second wave, even without harsh lockdowns. We argue that enhanced surveillance at district, state, and national levels and constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission are critical for future pandemic responsiveness. Building on our retrospective analysis, we provide a tiered data-driven framework for timely escalation of future interventions as a tool for policy-makers.

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          Abstract

          An analysis of wave 2 in India shows that early and sustained nonlockdown measures could significantly reduce COVID-19 mortality.

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          Most cited references69

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          Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

          Summary Background In December, 2019, a pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China. We aimed to further clarify the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. Methods In this retrospective, single-centre study, we included all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020. Cases were confirmed by real-time RT-PCR and were analysed for epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and radiological features and laboratory data. Outcomes were followed up until Jan 25, 2020. Findings Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection. Funding National Key R&D Program of China.
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            Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

            Abstract Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. Methods We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. Results Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). Conclusions On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
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              Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 — Preliminary Report

              (2020)
              Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with diffuse lung damage. Glucocorticoids may modulate inflammation-mediated lung injury and thereby reduce progression to respiratory failure and death. Methods In this controlled, open-label trial comparing a range of possible treatments in patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned patients to receive oral or intravenous dexamethasone (at a dose of 6 mg once daily) for up to 10 days or to receive usual care alone. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Here, we report the preliminary results of this comparison. Results A total of 2104 patients were assigned to receive dexamethasone and 4321 to receive usual care. Overall, 482 patients (22.9%) in the dexamethasone group and 1110 patients (25.7%) in the usual care group died within 28 days after randomization (age-adjusted rate ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.93; P<0.001). The proportional and absolute between-group differences in mortality varied considerably according to the level of respiratory support that the patients were receiving at the time of randomization. In the dexamethasone group, the incidence of death was lower than that in the usual care group among patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (29.3% vs. 41.4%; rate ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.81) and among those receiving oxygen without invasive mechanical ventilation (23.3% vs. 26.2%; rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94) but not among those who were receiving no respiratory support at randomization (17.8% vs. 14.0%; rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.55). Conclusions In patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the use of dexamethasone resulted in lower 28-day mortality among those who were receiving either invasive mechanical ventilation or oxygen alone at randomization but not among those receiving no respiratory support. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936; ISRCTN number, 50189673.)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draft
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Validation
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing - original draft
                Role: Formal analysisRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: Software
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                sciadv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                June 2022
                17 June 2022
                : 8
                : 24
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
                [2 ]Center for Precision Health Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
                [3 ]Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
                [4 ]Division of Infectious Diseases, Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
                [5 ]Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
                [6 ]Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
                [7 ]Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
                [8 ]Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
                [9 ]Department of Public Health and Community Medicine and Center for Global Public Health, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. Email: bhramar@ 123456umich.edu
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Article
                abp8621
                10.1126/sciadv.abp8621
                9205583
                35714183
                c95fab12-9889-493b-8d90-a36428ac03ac
                Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

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                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011631, School of Public Health, University of Michigan;
                Categories
                Research Article
                Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
                SciAdv r-articles
                Coronavirus
                Custom metadata
                Adrienne Del Mundo

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