National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences

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Abstract

Background

Overweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available.

Methods

We estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence.

Results

The global age-standardized prevalence of obesity nearly doubled from 6.4% (95% uncertainty interval 5.7-7.2%) in 1980 to 12.0% (11.5-12.5%) in 2008. Half of this rise occurred in the 20 years between 1980 and 2000, and half occurred in the 8 years between 2000 and 2008. The age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 24.6% (22.7-26.7%) to 34.4% (33.2-35.5%) during the same 28-year period. In 2008, female obesity prevalence ranged from 1.4% (0.7-2.2%) in Bangladesh and 1.5% (0.9-2.4%) in Madagascar to 70.4% (61.9-78.9%) in Tonga and 74.8% (66.7-82.1%) in Nauru. Male obesity was below 1% in Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia, and was highest in Cook Islands (60.1%, 52.6-67.6%) and Nauru (67.9%, 60.5-75.0%).

Conclusions

Globally, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased since 1980, and the increase has accelerated. Although obesity increased in most countries, levels and trends varied substantially. These data on trends in overweight and obesity may be used to set targets for obesity prevalence as requested at the United Nations high-level meeting on Prevention and Control of NCDs.

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Most cited references 5

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National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

Goodarz Danaei, Mariel Finucane, John K Lin … (2011)

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Socioeconomic status and obesity in adult populations of developing countries: a review.

Andre Moura, João C. Monteiro, Wolney Conde … (2004)

A landmark review of studies published prior to 1989 on socioeconomic status (SES) and obesity supported the view that obesity in the developing world would be essentially a disease of the socioeconomic elite. The present review, on studies conducted in adult populations from developing countries, published between 1989 and 2003, shows a different scenario for the relationship between SES and obesity. Although more studies are necessary to clarify the exact nature of this relationship, particularly among men, three main conclusions emerge from the studies reviewed: 1. Obesity in the developing world can no longer be considered solely a disease of groups with higher SES. 2. The burden of obesity in each developing country tends to shift towards the groups with lower SES as the country's gross national product (GNP) increases. 3. The shift of obesity towards women with low SES apparently occurs at an earlier stage of economic development than it does for men. The crossover to higher rates of obesity among women of low SES is found at a GNP per capita of about US$ 2500, the mid-point value for lower-middle-income economies. The results of this review reinforce the urgent need to: include obesity prevention as a relevant topic on the public health agenda in developing countries; improve the access of all social classes in these countries to reliable information on the determinants and consequences of obesity; and design and implement consistent public actions on the physical, economic, and sociocultural environment that make healthier choices concerning diet and physical activity feasible for all. A significant step in this direction was taken with the approval of the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health by the World Health Assembly in May 2004.

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Sleep and obesity.

Guglielmo Beccuti, Silvana Pannain (2011)

This review summarizes the most recent evidence linking decreased sleep duration and poor sleep quality to obesity, focusing upon studies in adults. Published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies suggest that the worldwide prevalence of obesity has doubled since 1980. In 2008, 1 in 10 adults was obese, with women more likely to be obese than men. This obesity epidemic has been paralleled by a trend of reduced sleep duration. Poor sleep quality, which leads to overall sleep loss has also become a frequent complaint. Growing evidence from both laboratory and epidemiological studies points to short sleep duration and poor sleep quality as new risk factors for the development of obesity. Sleep is an important modulator of neuroendocrine function and glucose metabolism and sleep loss has been shown to result in metabolic and endocrine alterations, including decreased glucose tolerance, decreased insulin sensitivity, increased evening concentrations of cortisol, increased levels of ghrelin, decreased levels of leptin, and increased hunger and appetite. Recent epidemiological and laboratory evidence confirm previous findings of an association between sleep loss and increased risk of obesity.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Popul Health Metr

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Popul Health Metr

Title: Population Health Metrics

Publisher: BioMed Central

ISSN (Electronic): 1478-7954

Publication date Collection: 2012

Publication date (Electronic): 20 November 2012

Volume: 10

Page: 22

Affiliations

[1 ]Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

[2 ]Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA

[3 ]Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA

[4 ]Independent consultant, Geneva, Switzerland

[5 ]Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

[6 ]Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, USA

[7 ]Noncommunicable Diseases Research Centre, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

[8 ]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, MRC-HPA Center for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK

Article

Publisher ID: 1478-7954-10-22

DOI: 10.1186/1478-7954-10-22

PMC ID: 3543235

PubMed ID: 23167948

SO-VID: ca502e77-5cb2-43ec-86b3-7a2ce09d4449

License:

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

History

Date received : 4 February 2012

Date accepted : 29 October 2012

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National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences

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Abstract

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Most cited references 5

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

Socioeconomic status and obesity in adult populations of developing countries: a review.

Sleep and obesity.

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