A novel nomogram based on cardia invasion and chemotherapy to predict postoperative overall survival of gastric cancer patients

Abstract

Background

We aimed to establish and externally validate a nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer (GC) patients after surgical resection.

Methods

A total of 6543 patients diagnosed with primary GC during 2004–2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We grouped patients diagnosed during 2004–2012 into a training set ( n = 4528) and those diagnosed during 2013–2016 into an external validation set ( n = 2015). A nomogram was constructed after univariate and multivariate analysis. Performance was evaluated by Harrell’s C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration plot.

Results

The multivariate analysis identified age, race, location, tumor size, T stage, N stage, M stage, and chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. In multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) of non-cardia invasion was 0.762 ( P < 0.001) and that of chemotherapy was 0.556 ( P < 0.001). Our nomogram was found to exhibit excellent discrimination: in the training set, Harrell’s C-index was superior to that of the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (0.736 vs 0.699, P < 0.001); the C-index was also better in the validation set (0.748 vs 0.707, P < 0.001). The AUCs for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.806 and 0.815 in the training set and 0.775 and 0.783 in the validation set, respectively. The DCA and calibration plot of the model also shows good performance.

Conclusions

We established a well-designed nomogram to accurately predict the OS of primary GC patients after surgical resection. We also further confirmed the prognostic value of cardia invasion and chemotherapy in predicting the survival rate of GC patients.