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      Um modelo para medir os efeitos da cobertura da imprensa no voto: teste nas eleições de 2002 e 2006

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          Abstract

          Este artigo apresenta a construção e o teste de um modelo voltado para medir o efeito da cobertura da imprensa no voto dos eleitores. O período de análise são as eleições presidenciais de 2002 e 2006. A variável dependente são as séries históricas de intenção de voto dos principais candidatos. A variável explicativa de maior interesse foi construída a partir da análise de conteúdo da cobertura eleitoral de quatro grandes jornais do país: Folha de S. Paulo, O Estado de S. Paulo, O Globo e Jornal do Brasil. Os resultados dos testes indicaram que o modelo funcionou satisfatoriamente e que a cobertura da imprensa foi, sim, um fator importante das disputas eleitorais de 2002 e 2006. Em ambos os pleitos as intenções de voto de seis dos oito principais candidatos ao cargo de Presidente da República foram afetadas pelos fluxos de informação provenientes da cobertura da imprensa.

          Translated abstract

          This article presents the construction and test of a model developed to measure the effects of the press coverage in voting. The period of analysis are the presidential elections of 2002 and 2006. The dependent variable are the historical voting intentions series of the main candidates. The main independent variable was constructed from the content analysis focusing on the electoral coverage by the following Brazilian newspapers: Folha de S. Paulo, O Estado de S. Paulo, O Globo and Jornal do Brasil. The test results showed that the model worked well, and that the press coverage was indeed an important factor in the electoral disputes of 2002 and 2006. In both elections the voting intentions of six among the eight main presidential candidates were affected by the information flows coming from the press coverage.

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          Most cited references 72

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          The Responsible Electorate

           V. Key (1966)
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            Retrospective voting in American national elections

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              Information and Elections

               R. Alvarez (1997)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                op
                Opinião Pública
                Opin. Publica
                Centro de Estudos de Opiniao Publica da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Campinas )
                1807-0191
                November 2010
                : 16
                : 2
                : 394-425
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Brazil
                Article
                S0104-62762010000200005
                10.1590/S0104-62762010000200005
                Product
                Product Information: website
                Categories
                COMMUNICATION
                POLITICAL SCIENCE

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