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      Statistical Methodology in Studies of Prenatal Exposure to Mixtures of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals: A Review of Existing Approaches and New Alternatives

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          Abstract

          Background:

          Prenatal exposures to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) during critical developmental windows have been implicated in the etiologies of a wide array of adverse perinatal and pediatric outcomes. Epidemiological studies have concentrated on the health effects of individual chemicals, despite the understanding that EDCs act together via common mechanisms, that pregnant women are exposed to multiple EDCs simultaneously, and that substantial toxicological evidence of adverse developmental effects has been documented. There is a move toward multipollutant models in environmental epidemiology; however, there is no current consensus on appropriate statistical methods.

          Objectives:

          We aimed to review the statistical methods used in these studies, to identify additional applicable methods, and to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each method for addressing the salient statistical and epidemiological challenges.

          Methods:

          We searched Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science for epidemiological studies of endocrine-sensitive outcomes in the children of mothers exposed to EDC mixtures during pregnancy and identified alternative statistical methods from the wider literature.

          Discussion:

          We identified 74 studies and analyzed the methods used to estimate mixture health effects, identify important mixture components, account for nonmonotonicity in exposure–response relationships, assess interactions, and identify windows of exposure susceptibility. We identified both frequentist and Bayesian methods that are robust to multicollinearity, performing shrinkage, variable selection, dimension reduction, statistical learning, or smoothing, including methods that were not used by the studies included in our review.

          Conclusions:

          Compelling motivation exists for analyzing EDCs as mixtures, yet many studies make simplifying assumptions about EDC additivity, relative potency, and linearity, or overlook the potential for bias due to asymmetries in chemical persistence. We discuss the potential impacts of these choices and suggest alternative methods to improve analyses of prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2207

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            Bayesian kernel machine regression for estimating the health effects of multi-pollutant mixtures.

            Because humans are invariably exposed to complex chemical mixtures, estimating the health effects of multi-pollutant exposures is of critical concern in environmental epidemiology, and to regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, most health effects studies focus on single agents or consider simple two-way interaction models, in part because we lack the statistical methodology to more realistically capture the complexity of mixed exposures. We introduce Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) as a new approach to study mixtures, in which the health outcome is regressed on a flexible function of the mixture (e.g. air pollution or toxic waste) components that is specified using a kernel function. In high-dimensional settings, a novel hierarchical variable selection approach is incorporated to identify important mixture components and account for the correlated structure of the mixture. Simulation studies demonstrate the success of BKMR in estimating the exposure-response function and in identifying the individual components of the mixture responsible for health effects. We demonstrate the features of the method through epidemiology and toxicology applications.
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              Characterization of Weighted Quantile Sum Regression for Highly Correlated Data in a Risk Analysis Setting

              In risk evaluation, the effect of mixtures of environmental chemicals on a common adverse outcome is of interest. However, due to the high dimensionality and inherent correlations among chemicals that occur together, the traditional methods (e.g. ordinary or logistic regression) suffer from collinearity and variance inflation, and shrinkage methods have limitations in selecting among correlated components. We propose a weighted quantile sum (WQS) approach to estimating a body burden index, which identifies "bad actors" in a set of highly correlated environmental chemicals. We evaluate and characterize the accuracy of WQS regression in variable selection through extensive simulation studies through sensitivity and specificity (i.e., ability of the WQS method to select the bad actors correctly and not incorrect ones). We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy this method provides over traditional ordinary regression and shrinkage methods (lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net). Results from simulations demonstrate that WQS regression is accurate under some environmentally relevant conditions, but its accuracy decreases for a fixed correlation pattern as the association with a response variable diminishes. Nonzero weights (i.e., weights exceeding a selection threshold parameter) may be used to identify bad actors; however, components within a cluster of highly correlated active components tend to have lower weights, with the sum of their weights representative of the set.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Environ Health Perspect
                Environ. Health Perspect
                EHP
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                Environmental Health Perspectives
                0091-6765
                1552-9924
                5 February 2019
                February 2019
                : 127
                : 2
                : 026001
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ]School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
                [ 2 ]School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
                [ 3 ]Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
                [ 4 ]Centre for Air Quality & Health Research and Evaluation , Glebe, New South Wales, Australia
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to N. Lazarevic, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Public Health Building, Herston Rd., Herston QLD 4006 Australia. Email: n.lazarevic@ 123456uq.edu.au
                Article
                EHP2207
                10.1289/EHP2207
                6752940
                30720337
                cb0ec1d3-5dfa-4229-b825-c8fe2a6478fb

                EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.

                History
                : 15 May 2017
                : 09 January 2019
                : 10 January 2019
                Categories
                Review

                Public health
                Public health

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