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      Cross border population movements across three East African states: Implications for disease surveillance and response

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          Abstract

          The frequent population movement across the five East African Countries poses risk of disease spread in the region. A clear understanding of population movement patterns is critical for informing cross-border disease control interventions. We assessed population mobility patterns across the borders of the East African states of Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. In November 2022, we conducted Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and participatory mapping. Participants were selected using purposive sampling and a topic guide used during interviews. Key informants included border districts (Uganda and Rwanda) and county health officials (Kenya). FGD participants were identified from border communities and travellers and these included truck drivers, commercial motorcyclists, and businesspersons. During KIIs and FGDs, we conducted participatory mapping using Population Connectivity Across Borders toolkits. Data were analysed using thematic analysis approach using Atlas ti 7 software. Different age groups travelled across borders for various reasons. Younger age groups travelled across the border for education, trade, social reasons, employment opportunities, agriculture and mining. While older age groups mainly travelled for healthcare and social reasons. Other common reasons for crossing the borders included religious and cultural matters. Respondents reported seasonal variations in the volume of travellers. Respondents reported using both official (4 Kenya-Uganda, 5 Rwanda-Uganda borders) and unofficial Points of Entry (PoEs) (14 Kenya-Uganda, 20 Uganda-Rwanda) for exit and entry movements on borders. Unofficial PoEs were preferred because they had fewer restrictions like the absence of health screening, and immigration and customs checks. Key destination points (points of interest) included: markets, health facilities, places of worship, education institutions, recreational facilities and business towns. Twenty-eight health facilities (10- Lwakhakha, Uganda, 10- Lwakhakha, Kenya, and 8- Cyanika, Uganda) along the borders were the most commonly visited by the travellers and border communities. Complex population movement and connectivity patterns were identified along the borders. These were used to guide cross-border disease surveillance and other border health strategies in the three countries. Findings were used to revise district response and preparedness plans by strengthening community-based surveillance in border communities.

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          Faeco-prevalence of Campylobacter jejuni in urban wild birds and pets in New Zealand

          Background Greater attention has been given to Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) prevalence in poultry and ruminants as they are regarded as the major contributing reservoirs of human campylobacteriosis. However, relatively little work has been done to assess the prevalence in urban wild birds and pets in New Zealand, a country with the highest campylobacteriosis notification rates. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the faeco-prevalence of C. jejuni in urban wild birds and pets and its temporal trend in the Manawatu region of New Zealand. Findings A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted from April 2008 to July 2009, where faecal samples were collected from 906 ducks, 835 starlings, 23 Canadian goose, 2 swans, 2 pied stilts, 498 dogs and 82 cats. The faeco-prevalence of C. jejuni was 20% in ducks, 18% in starlings, 9% in Canadian goose, 5% in dogs and 7% in cats. The faeco-prevalence of C. jejuni was relatively higher during warmer months of the year in ducks, starlings and dogs while starlings showed increased winter prevalence. No such trend could be assessed in Canadian goose, swans, pied stilts and cats as samples could not be collected for the entire study period from these species. Conclusions This study estimated the faeco-prevalence of C. jejuni in different animal species where the prevalence was relatively high during warmer months in general. However, there was relative increase in winter prevalence in starlings. The urban wild bird species and pets may be considered potential risk factors for human campylobacteriosis in New Zealand, particularly in small children.
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            Human Mobility and the Global Spread of Infectious Diseases: A Focus on Air Travel

            Greater human mobility, largely driven by air travel, is leading to an increase in the frequency and reach of infectious disease epidemics. Air travel can rapidly connect any two points on the planet, and this has the potential to cause swift and broad dissemination of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that may pose a threat to global health security. Investments to strengthen surveillance, build robust early-warning systems, improve predictive models, and coordinate public health responses may help to prevent, detect, and respond to new infectious disease epidemics.
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              Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

              Summary Background Countries have restricted international arrivals to delay the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These measures carry a high economic and social cost, and might have little effect on COVID-19 epidemics if there are many more cases resulting from local transmission compared with imported cases. Our study aims to investigate the extent to which imported cases contribute to local transmission under different epidemic conditions. Methods To inform decisions about international travel restrictions, we calculated the ratio of expected COVID-19 cases from international travel (assuming no travel restrictions) to expected cases arising from internal spread, expressed as a proportion, on an average day in May and September, 2020, in each country. COVID-19 prevalence and incidence were estimated using a modelling framework that adjusts reported cases for under-ascertainment and asymptomatic infections. We considered different travel scenarios for May and September, 2020: an upper bound with estimated travel volumes at the same levels as May and September, 2019, and a lower bound with estimated travel volumes adjusted downwards according to expected reductions in May and September, 2020. Results were interpreted in the context of local epidemic growth rates. Findings In May, 2020, imported cases are likely to have accounted for a high proportion of total incidence in many countries, contributing more than 10% of total incidence in 102 (95% credible interval 63–129) of 136 countries when assuming no reduction in travel volumes (ie, with 2019 travel volumes) and in 74 countries (33–114) when assuming estimated 2020 travel volumes. Imported cases in September, 2020, would have accounted for no more than 10% of total incidence in 106 (50–140) of 162 countries and less than 1% in 21 countries (4–71) when assuming no reductions in travel volumes. With estimated 2020 travel volumes, imported cases in September, 2020, accounted for no more than 10% of total incidence in 125 countries (65–162) and less than 1% in 44 countries (8–97). Of these 44 countries, 22 (2–61) had epidemic growth rates far from the tipping point of exponential growth, making them the least likely to benefit from travel restrictions. Interpretation Countries can expect travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2 to arrive in the absence of travel restrictions. Although such restrictions probably contribute to epidemic control in many countries, in others, imported cases are likely to contribute little to local COVID-19 epidemics. Stringent travel restrictions might have little impact on epidemic dynamics except in countries with low COVID-19 incidence and large numbers of arrivals from other countries, or where epidemics are close to tipping points for exponential growth. Countries should consider local COVID-19 incidence, local epidemic growth, and travel volumes before implementing such restrictions. Funding Wellcome Trust, UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, European Commission, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: Visualization
                Role: InvestigationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Investigation
                Role: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLOS Glob Public Health
                PLOS Glob Public Health
                plos
                PLOS Global Public Health
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                2767-3375
                16 October 2024
                2024
                : 4
                : 10
                : e0002983
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Uganda Public Health Fellowship Program, Uganda National Institute of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
                [2 ] Division of Surveillance, Information and Knowledge Management, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda
                [3 ] Department of Global Health Security, Baylor College of Medicine Children’s Foundation, Kampala, Uganda
                [4 ] Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, Kenya National Public Health Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
                [5 ] Field Epidemiology Training Program, Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda
                [6 ] International Association of National Public Health Institutes, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
                University of St. Andrews, UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
                Author notes

                The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4153-0600
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1221-7197
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7172-2938
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3246-4929
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3936-4798
                https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2164-0924
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4448-3799
                https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3025-8251
                https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5981-7626
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0630-8773
                Article
                PGPH-D-24-00279
                10.1371/journal.pgph.0002983
                11482666
                39413099
                cb558aa3-2e1f-4577-8ac4-5b1d9ae42432
                © 2024 King et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 5 March 2024
                : 1 August 2024
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 0, Pages: 12
                Funding
                Funded by: The International Association of National Public Health Institutes
                Award ID: NU14GH001238
                The project was supported by the International Association of National Public Health Institutes (IANPHI), Uganda National Institute of Public Health, and the United States Centres for Disease Control and prevention grant number NU14GH001238. The contents of this manuscript are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the US-Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the department of health and human services, Makerere University school of Public Health or the Ministry of Health. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Africa
                Uganda
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Africa
                Kenya
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Africa
                Rwanda
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Education
                Schools
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Epidemiology
                Disease Surveillance
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                Health Care
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                Microbial Pathogens
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                Immunodeficiency Viruses
                HIV
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                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Pathogens
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Immunodeficiency Viruses
                HIV
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
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                Viral Pathogens
                Immunodeficiency Viruses
                HIV
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
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                Immunodeficiency Viruses
                HIV
                Biology and life sciences
                Organisms
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                RNA viruses
                Retroviruses
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                Biology and Life Sciences
                Microbiology
                Medical Microbiology
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Retroviruses
                Lentivirus
                HIV
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
                Pathogens
                Microbial Pathogens
                Viral Pathogens
                Retroviruses
                Lentivirus
                HIV
                Biology and Life Sciences
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                Viruses
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                Custom metadata
                The datasets upon which our findings are based belong to the Uganda Ministry of Health and Uganda National Institute of Public Health (UNIPH). They are publicly available upon request from the Uganda National Institute of Public Health through info@ 123456uniph.go.ug .

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