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# Delayed Effects of Obese and Overweight Population Conditions on All-Cause Adult Mortality Rate in the USA

Frontiers in Public Health

Frontiers Media S.A.

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### Abstract

Currently, there are few studies separating the linkage of pathological obese and overweight body mass indices (BMIs) to the all-cause mortality rate in adults. Consequently, this paper, using annual Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia, estimates empirical regression models linking the US adult overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30) rates to the all-cause deaths rate. The biochemistry of multi-period cumulative adiposity (saturated fatty acid) from unexpended caloric intakes (net energy storage) provides the natural theoretical foundation for tracing unhealthy BMI to all-cause mortality. Cross-sectional and panel data regression models are separately estimated for the delayed effects of obese and overweight BMIs on the all-cause mortality rate. Controlling for the independent effects of economic, socio-demographic, and other factors on the all-cause mortality rate, our findings confirm that the estimated panel data models are more appropriate. The panel data regression results reveal that the obesity-mortality link strengthens significantly after multiple years in the condition. The faster mortality response to obesity detected here is conjectured to arise from the significantly more obese. Compared with past studies postulating a static (rather than delayed) effects, the statistically significant lagged effects of adult population BMI pathology in this study are novel and insightful. And, as expected, these lagged effects are more severe in the obese than overweight population segment. Public health policy implications of this social science study findings agree with those of the clinical sciences literature advocating timely lifestyle modification interventions (e.g., smoking cessation) to slow premature mortality linked with unhealthy BMIs.

### Most cited references33

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### A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity

(1980)
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### Prevalence of childhood and adult obesity in the United States, 2011-2012.

(2014)
More than one-third of adults and 17% of youth in the United States are obese, although the prevalence remained stable between 2003-2004 and 2009-2010. To provide the most recent national estimates of childhood obesity, analyze trends in childhood obesity between 2003 and 2012, and provide detailed obesity trend analyses among adults. Weight and height or recumbent length were measured in 9120 participants in the 2011-2012 nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In infants and toddlers from birth to 2 years, high weight for recumbent length was defined as weight for length at or above the 95th percentile of the sex-specific Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) growth charts. In children and adolescents aged 2 to 19 years, obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) at or above the 95th percentile of the sex-specific CDC BMI-for-age growth charts. In adults, obesity was defined as a BMI greater than or equal to 30. Analyses of trends in high weight for recumbent length or obesity prevalence were conducted overall and separately by age across 5 periods (2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012). In 2011-2012, 8.1% (95% CI, 5.8%-11.1%) of infants and toddlers had high weight for recumbent length, and 16.9% (95% CI, 14.9%-19.2%) of 2- to 19-year-olds and 34.9% (95% CI, 32.0%-37.9%) of adults (age-adjusted) aged 20 years or older were obese. Overall, there was no significant change from 2003-2004 through 2011-2012 in high weight for recumbent length among infants and toddlers, obesity in 2- to 19-year-olds, or obesity in adults. Tests for an interaction between survey period and age found an interaction in children (P = .03) and women (P = .02). There was a significant decrease in obesity among 2- to 5-year-old children (from 13.9% to 8.4%; P = .03) and a significant increase in obesity among women aged 60 years and older (from 31.5% to 38.1%; P = .006). Overall, there have been no significant changes in obesity prevalence in youth or adults between 2003-2004 and 2011-2012. Obesity prevalence remains high and thus it is important to continue surveillance.
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### Annual medical spending attributable to obesity: payer-and service-specific estimates.

(2015)
In 1998 the medical costs of obesity were estimated to be as high as $78.5 billion, with roughly half financed by Medicare and Medicaid. This analysis presents updated estimates of the costs of obesity for the United States across payers (Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers), in separate categories for inpatient, non-inpatient, and prescription drug spending. We found that the increased prevalence of obesity is responsible for almost$40 billion of increased medical spending through 2006, including $7 billion in Medicare prescription drug costs. We estimate that the medical costs of obesity could have risen to$147 billion per year by 2008.
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### Author and article information

###### Affiliations
1Department of Economics, Fogelman College of Business and Economics, The University of Memphis , Memphis, TN, USA
2Medical Center, The University of Mississippi School of Medicine , Jackson, MS, USA
###### Author notes

Edited by: Mihajlo Jakovljevic, University of Kragujevac, Serbia; Hosei University Tokyo, Japan

Reviewed by: Patricia Coelho Soarez, University of São Paulo, Brazil; Ewelina Marta Wierzejska, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poland; Mihajlo Jakovljevic, University of Kragujevac, Serbia; Hosei University Tokyo, Japan

Specialty section: This article was submitted to Health Economics, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health

###### Contributors
URI : http://frontiersin.org/people/u/334157
###### Journal
Front Public Health
Front Public Health
Front. Public Health
Frontiers in Public Health
Frontiers Media S.A.
2296-2565
28 September 2016
2016
: 4
5039184
10.3389/fpubh.2016.00212

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

###### Counts
Figures: 0, Tables: 3, Equations: 1, References: 45, Pages: 9, Words: 7542
###### Categories
Public Health
Original Research