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      The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden

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      Author(s): 1 , 2 , * , 2 , 3
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      Publication date (Electronic):
      Journal: PLoS ONE
      Publisher: Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3–4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.

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          Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

          Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy … (2020)
          Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt < 1.0 is greater than 99%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions-and lockdowns in particular-have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
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            A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics

            W O Kermack, A McKendrick (1927)
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              Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

              Renyi Zhang, Yixin Li, Annie L Zhang … (2020)
              Significance We have elucidated the transmission pathways of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in the three epicenters. Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Benjamin Born:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1617-8025
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review & editing
                Alexander M. Dietrich: Role: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Gernot J. Müller: Role: ConceptualizationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Joël Mossong: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS One
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date Collection: 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): 8 April 2021
                Volume: 16
                Issue: 4
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0249732
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, CEPR, and CESifo, Frankfurt, Germany
                [2 ] University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
                [3 ] University of Tübingen, CEPR, and CESifo, Tübingen, Germany
                Health Directorate, LUXEMBOURG
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1617-8025
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-20-38449
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249732
                PMC ID: 8031244
                PubMed ID: 33831093
                SO-VID: cc2b2c76-54b2-4d04-98da-45b40f05e4a5
                Copyright © © 2021 Born et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 7 December 2020
                Date accepted : 23 March 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 2, Pages: 13
                Funding
                The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: People and places
                Subject: Geographical locations
                Subject: Europe
                Subject: European Union
                Subject: Sweden
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Medical Conditions
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Viral Diseases
                Subject: Covid 19
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Diagnostic Medicine
                Subject: Virus Testing
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Epidemiology
                Subject: Pandemics
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Economics
                Subject: Health Economics
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Health Care
                Subject: Health Economics
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Epidemiology
                Subject: Medical Risk Factors
                Subject: People and Places
                Subject: Geographical Locations
                Subject: Europe
                Subject: Norway
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Medical Conditions
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Infectious Disease Control
                Subject: Social Distancing
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability Full replication files are available at https://www.benjaminborn.de/files/Code_BDM_Feb_2021.zip.

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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