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      Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations.

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          Abstract

          Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species' niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.

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          Most cited references12

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          A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century.

          Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.
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            Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

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              A northward shift of range margins in British Odonata

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Science
                Science (New York, N.Y.)
                American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
                1095-9203
                0036-8075
                Jan 21 2011
                : 331
                : 6015
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.
                Article
                331/6015/324
                10.1126/science.1199040
                21252344
                ce8419c7-ee93-48b0-87d3-8f1433c0d9e7
                History

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