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      MJO‐Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models

      , 1 , 1

      Geophysical Research Letters

      John Wiley and Sons Inc.

      MJO, SSW, strat‐trop coupling

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          The effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO‐related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

          Key Points

          • The MJO phase with convection in the West Pacific precedes a weaker vortex in two subseasonal forecast models

          • Time scale of predictability for SSW events may approach 4 weeks if a strong MJO event is realistically simulated

          • Ensemble spread in stratospheric circulation is related to ensemble spread in tropical convection

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          Most cited references 40

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          Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation

           A. E. Gill (1980)
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            An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction

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              Observations of the 40–50-Day Tropical Oscillation—A Review

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                chaim.garfinkel@mail.huji.ac.il
                Journal
                Geophys Res Lett
                Geophys Res Lett
                10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007
                GRL
                Geophysical Research Letters
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                0094-8276
                1944-8007
                13 October 2017
                16 October 2017
                : 44
                : 19 ( doiID: 10.1002/grl.v44.19 )
                : 10054-10062
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Fredy and Nadine Hartmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem Israel
                Author notes
                [* ] Correspondence to: C. I. Garfinkel,

                chaim.garfinkel@ 123456mail.huji.ac.il

                Article
                GRL56451 2017GL074470
                10.1002/2017GL074470
                5699436
                2017. The Authors.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                Counts
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Pages: 9, Words: 3459
                Product
                Funding
                Funded by: Israel Science Foundation
                Award ID: 1558/14
                Funded by: European Research Council
                Award ID: 677756
                Categories
                Atmospheric Science
                Atmospheric Composition and Structure
                Middle Atmosphere: Constituent Transport and Chemistry
                Middle Atmosphere: Energy Deposition
                Atmospheric Processes
                Middle Atmosphere Dynamics
                Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions
                Stratospheric Dynamics
                Tropical Convection
                Tropical Dynamics
                Research Letter
                Research Letters
                Atmospheric Science
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                grl56451
                16 October 2017
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.2.6 mode:remove_FC converted:22.11.2017

                strat‐trop coupling, ssw, mjo

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