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      Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

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          Abstract

          The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

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          The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

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            Climate change hot-spots

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              European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.

              Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                +49-357-22208601 , +49-357-22208625 , j.lelieveld@cyi.ac.cy
                Journal
                Clim Change
                Clim Change
                Climatic Change
                Springer Netherlands (Dordrecht )
                0165-0009
                1573-1480
                7 March 2012
                7 March 2012
                2012
                : 114
                : 3-4
                : 667-687
                Affiliations
                [ ]The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus
                [ ]Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany
                [ ]King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia
                [ ]University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey UK GU2 7XH
                [ ]National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece
                [ ]University of the Aegean, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
                [ ]Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, 35390 Giessen, Germany
                [ ]University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
                Article
                418
                10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4
                4372776
                25834296
                d09a0c2a-7945-46bc-bd8b-bcefb9be8b36
                © The Author(s) 2012
                History
                : 11 March 2011
                : 27 January 2012
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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