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      The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: Time‐bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires

      1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 1 , 5 , 2 , 4 , 3 , 6 , 7 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 4 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 6 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 9 , 23 , 1 , 25 , 26 , 6 , 9 , 23 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 20 , 31 , 32 , 9 , 19 , 33 , 34 , 34 , 35 , 9 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 18 , 38 , 32 , 34 , 6 , 17 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 34 , 9 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 4 , 45 , 4 , 5
      Global Ecology and Biogeography
      Wiley

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          Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity

          Anthropogenic trade and development have broken down dispersal barriers, facilitating the spread of diseases that threaten Earth’s biodiversity. We present a global, quantitative assessment of the amphibian chytridiomycosis panzootic, one of the most impactful examples of disease spread, and demonstrate its role in the decline of at least 501 amphibian species over the past half-century, including 90 presumed extinctions. The effects of chytridiomycosis have been greatest in large-bodied, range-restricted anurans in wet climates in the Americas and Australia. Declines peaked in the 1980s, and only 12% of declined species show signs of recovery, whereas 39% are experiencing ongoing decline. There is risk of further chytridiomycosis outbreaks in new areas. The chytridiomycosis panzootic represents the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.
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            Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree.

            This article reports on an effort to explore the differences between two approaches to intuition and expertise that are often viewed as conflicting: heuristics and biases (HB) and naturalistic decision making (NDM). Starting from the obvious fact that professional intuition is sometimes marvelous and sometimes flawed, the authors attempt to map the boundary conditions that separate true intuitive skill from overconfident and biased impressions. They conclude that evaluating the likely quality of an intuitive judgment requires an assessment of the predictability of the environment in which the judgment is made and of the individual's opportunity to learn the regularities of that environment. Subjective experience is not a reliable indicator of judgment accuracy.
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              Unprecedented burn area of Australian mega forest fires

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
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                Journal
                Global Ecology and Biogeography
                Global Ecol Biogeogr
                Wiley
                1466-822X
                1466-8238
                March 2022
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods Charles Darwin University Casuarina Northern Territory Australia
                [2 ]Centre for Biodiversity Conservation Science University of Queensland St Lucia Queensland Australia
                [3 ]Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
                [4 ]School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
                [5 ]Aquasave−Nature Glenelg Trust Victor Harbor South Australia Australia
                [6 ]Institute for Land, Water and Society, School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences Charles Sturt University Albury New South Wales Australia
                [7 ]Centre for Applied Water Science University of Canberra Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
                [8 ]Birdlife Australia Carlton Victoria Australia
                [9 ]Australian Museum Research Institute The Australian Museum Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [10 ]School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Kensington New South Wales Australia
                [11 ]New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service Coffs Harbour New South Wales Australia
                [12 ]Discipline of Zoology, School of Environmental and Rural Science University of New England Armidale New South Wales Australia
                [13 ]Department for Conservation Ecology and Social‐Ecological Systems Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig Germany
                [14 ]Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Bentley Western Australia Australia
                [15 ]Wildlife Conservation & Science Zoos Victoria Parkville Victoria Australia
                [16 ]Grafton Fisheries Centre Grafton New South Wales Australia
                [17 ]School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia Crawley Western Australia Australia
                [18 ]School of Biological Sciences Monash University Clayton, Melbourne Victoria Australia
                [19 ]School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [20 ]Protected Species and Communities Branch Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment Parkes Australian Capital Territory Australia
                [21 ]School of Biological Sciences University of Queensland St Lucia Queensland Australia
                [22 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="6489"></id> </idGroup> Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University Richmond New South Wales Australia
                [23 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="7779"></id> </idGroup> Department of Biological Sciences Macquarie University Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [24 ]Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security NT Government Palmerston Northern Territory Australia
                [25 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="8001"></id> </idGroup> College of Science &amp; Engineering James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
                [26 ]New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment Albury New South Wales Australia
                [27 ]Australian Rivers Institute Griffith University Nathan Queensland Australia
                [28 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="2080"></id> </idGroup> Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems La Trobe University Wodonga Victoria Australia
                [29 ]School of Science, Psychology and Sport Federation University Mt Helen Victoria Australia
                [30 ]Forest Science Unit NSW Primary Industries Parramatta New South Wales Australia
                [31 ]Department of Environment and Genetics La Trobe University Wodonga Victoria Australia
                [32 ]Department of Environment and Genetics La Trobe University Bundoora Victoria Australia
                [33 ]Department of Planning and Environment Parramatta New South Wales Australia
                [34 ]Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Heidelberg Victoria Australia
                [35 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="5982"></id> </idGroup> School of Environment and Life Sciences The University of Newcastle Callaghan New South Wales Australia
                [36 ]Australian Crayfish Project, c/‐ Australian Aquatic Biological Pty Ltd Swan Bay New South Wales Australia
                [37 ]Carnegie Museum of Natural History, Section of Invertebrate Zoology Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA
                [38 ]Museums Victoria Melbourne Victoria Australia
                [39 ]Wongalara Wildlife Sanctuary Australian Wildlife Conservancy Katherine Northern Territory Australia
                [40 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="4571"></id> </idGroup> Faculty of Science and Engineering Southern Cross University Lismore New South Wales Australia
                [41 ]NSW Department of Primary Industries Albury New South Wales Australia
                [42 ]Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of NSW Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [43 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="2281"></id> </idGroup> School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences The University of Melbourne Creswick Victoria Australia
                [44 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="6489"></id> </idGroup> Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, School of Science Western Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia
                [45 ]<idGroup xmlns="http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley"> <id type="ringgold" value="28342"></id> </idGroup> School of BioSciences University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia
                Article
                10.1111/geb.13473
                d2088878-6cb5-4829-9060-5a5546cca1cc
                © 2022

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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