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      The First Rotavirus Vaccine and the Politics of Acceptable Risk

      research-article
      The Milbank Quarterly
      Blackwell Publishing Inc
      Rotavirus vaccines, intussusception, safety, risk, vaccination, policymaking

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          Abstract

          Context

          Vaccination in the United States is a frequent source of controversy, with critics alleging failures by public health officials to adequately identify, monitor, and respond to risks associated with vaccines. In response to these charges, the case of RotaShield, a vaccine withdrawn in 1999 following confirmation of a serious adverse event associated with its use, is regularly invoked as evidence of the effectiveness of current vaccine safety activities.

          Methods

          This article examines the history of RotaShield, with particular attention paid to decision making regarding its use in the United States and internationally. I reviewed and analyzed federal advisory committee meeting transcripts, international conference reports, government and scientific publications, media coverage, and other primary and secondary source materials. I also conducted six semistructured interviews with former senior officials and advisory committee members at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who participated in decisions regarding the vaccine.

          Findings

          Decision making regarding RotaShield, including the ultimate withdrawal of its recommendation for use, was shaped significantly by government health officials’ concern for preserving public confidence in overall U.S. vaccination efforts amid several unrelated vaccine risk controversies ongoing at that time. This attention to public perception and external pressures occurred in tandem with the evaluation of the quantitative evidence regarding the magnitude and severity of the risk associated with the vaccine. The decisions made in the United States resulted in foreseen but unintended consequences for international use of the vaccine, including in nations where the profile of risks and potential benefits was dramatically different.

          Conclusions

          As enthusiasm for evidence-based decision making grows throughout medicine and public health, greater explicit attention should be directed to the processes by which decision makers and their expert advisers evaluate such evidence and translate it into regulation and policy by means of qualitative judgments.

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          Most cited references74

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          2008 estimate of worldwide rotavirus-associated mortality in children younger than 5 years before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

          WHO recommends routine use of rotavirus vaccines in all countries, particularly in those with high mortality attributable to diarrhoeal diseases. To establish the burden of life-threatening rotavirus disease before the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine, we aimed to update the estimated number of deaths worldwide in children younger than 5 years due to diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection. We used PubMed to identify studies of at least 100 children younger than 5 years who had been admitted to hospital with diarrhoea. Additionally, we required the studies to have a data collection midpoint of the year 2000 or later, to be done in full-year increments, and to assesses diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus with EIAs or polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. We also included data from countries that participated in the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (consisting of participating member states during 2009) and that met study criteria. For countries that have introduced a rotavirus vaccine into their national immunisation programmes, we excluded data subsequent to the introduction. We classified studies into one of five groups on the basis of region and the level of child mortality in the country in which the study was done. For each group, to obtain estimates of rotavirus-associated mortality, we multiplied the random-effect mean rotavirus detection rate by the 2008 diarrhoea-related mortality figures for countries in that group. We derived the worldwide mortality estimate by summing our regional estimates. Worldwide in 2008, diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection resulted in 453,000 deaths (95% CI 420,000-494,000) in children younger than 5 years-37% of deaths attributable to diarrhoea and 5% of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Five countries accounted for more than half of all deaths attributable to rotavirus infection: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan; India alone accounted for 22% of deaths (98,621 deaths). Introduction of effective and available rotavirus vaccines could substantially affect worldwide deaths attributable to diarrhoea. Our new estimates can be used to advocate for rotavirus vaccine introduction and to monitor the effect of vaccination on mortality once introduced. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Intussusception among infants given an oral rotavirus vaccine.

            Intussusception is a form of intestinal obstruction in which a segment of the bowel prolapses into a more distal segment. Our investigation began on May 27, 1999, after nine cases of infants who had intussusception after receiving the tetravalent rhesus-human reassortant rotavirus vaccine (RRV-TV) were reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. In 19 states, we assessed the potential association between RRV-TV and intussusception among infants at least 1 but less than 12 months old. Infants hospitalized between November 1, 1998, and June 30, 1999, were identified by systematic reviews of medical and radiologic records. Each infant with intussusception was matched according to age with four healthy control infants who had been born at the same hospital as the infant with intussusception. Information on vaccinations was verified by the provider. Data were analyzed for 429 infants with intussusception and 1763 matched controls in a case-control analysis as well as for 432 infants with intussusception in a case-series analysis. Seventy-four of the 429 infants with intussusception (17.2 percent) and 226 of the 1763 controls (12.8 percent) had received RRV-TV (P=0.02). An increased risk of intussusception 3 to 14 days after the first dose of RRV-TV was found in the case-control analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 21.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 9.6 to 48.9). In the case-series analysis, the incidence-rate ratio was 29.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 16.1 to 53.6) for days 3 through 14 after a first dose. There was also an increase in the risk of intussusception after the second dose of the vaccine, but it was smaller than the increase in risk after the first dose. Assuming full implementation of a national program of vaccination with RRV-TV, we estimated that 1 case of intussusception attributable to the vaccine would occur for every 4670 to 9474 infants vaccinated. The strong association between vaccination with RRV-TV and intussusception among otherwise healthy infants supports the existence of a causal relation. Rotavirus vaccines with an improved safety profile are urgently needed.
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              Intussusception risk and health benefits of rotavirus vaccination in Mexico and Brazil.

              Because postlicensure surveillance determined that a previous rotavirus vaccine, RotaShield, caused intussusception in 1 of every 10,000 recipients, we assessed the association of the new monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) with intussusception after routine immunization of infants in Mexico and Brazil. We used case-series and case-control methods to assess the association between RV1 and intussusception. Infants with intussusception were identified through active surveillance at 69 hospitals (16 in Mexico and 53 in Brazil), and age-matched infants from the same neighborhood were enrolled as controls. Vaccination dates were verified by a review of vaccination cards or clinic records. We enrolled 615 case patients (285 in Mexico and 330 in Brazil) and 2050 controls. An increased risk of intussusception 1 to 7 days after the first dose of RV1 was identified among infants in Mexico with the use of both the case-series method (incidence ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0 to 9.3) and the case-control method (odds ratio, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.6 to 13.0). No significant risk was found after the first dose among infants in Brazil, but an increased risk, albeit smaller than that seen after the first dose in Mexico--an increase by a factor of 1.9 to 2.6 - was seen 1 to 7 days after the second dose. A combined annual excess of 96 cases of intussusception in Mexico (approximately 1 per 51,000 infants) and in Brazil (approximately 1 per 68,000 infants) and of 5 deaths due to intussusception was attributable to RV1. However, RV1 prevented approximately 80,000 hospitalizations and 1300 deaths from diarrhea each year in these two countries. RV1 was associated with a short-term risk of intussusception in approximately 1 of every 51,000 to 68,000 vaccinated infants. The absolute number of deaths and hospitalizations averted because of vaccination far exceeded the number of intussusception cases that may have been associated with vaccination. (Funded in part by the GAVI Alliance and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.).
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Milbank Q
                Milbank Q
                milq
                The Milbank Quarterly
                Blackwell Publishing Inc (Malden, USA )
                0887-378X
                1468-0009
                June 2012
                18 June 2012
                : 90
                : 2
                : 278-310
                Affiliations
                University of Pennsylvania
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to: Jason L. Schwartz, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania, 3401 Market Street, Suite 320, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (email: Jlschwa2@ 123456mail.med.upenn.edu ).
                Article
                10.1111/j.1468-0009.2012.00664.x
                3460207
                22709389
                d231fed1-e483-4aa0-af8b-a83eb161c595
                © 2012 Milbank Memorial Fund
                History
                Categories
                Original Articles

                Social policy & Welfare
                rotavirus vaccines,intussusception,safety,risk,vaccination,policymaking
                Social policy & Welfare
                rotavirus vaccines, intussusception, safety, risk, vaccination, policymaking

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