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      Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

      1 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 2
      Ecography
      Wiley

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          Synergies among extinction drivers under global change.

          If habitat destruction or overexploitation of populations is severe, species loss can occur directly and abruptly. Yet the final descent to extinction is often driven by synergistic processes (amplifying feedbacks) that can be disconnected from the original cause of decline. We review recent observational, experimental and meta-analytic work which together show that owing to interacting and self-reinforcing processes, estimates of extinction risk for most species are more severe than previously recognised. As such, conservation actions which only target single-threat drivers risk being inadequate because of the cascading effects caused by unmanaged synergies. Future work should focus on how climate change will interact with and accelerate ongoing threats to biodiversity, such as habitat degradation, overexploitation and invasive species.
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            Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

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              Balancing biodiversity in a changing environment: extinction debt, immigration credit and species turnover.

              Here, we outline a conceptual framework for biodiversity dynamics following environmental change. The model incorporates lags in extinction and immigration, which lead to extinction debt and immigration credit, respectively. Collectively, these concepts enable a balanced consideration of changes in biodiversity following climate change, habitat fragmentation and other forcing events. They also reveal transient phenomena, such as biodiversity surpluses and deficits, which have important ramifications for biological conservation and the preservation of ecosystem services. Predicting such transient dynamics poses a serious conservation challenge in a time of rapid environmental change.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ecography
                Ecography
                Wiley
                0906-7590
                1600-0587
                October 17 2019
                December 2019
                July 30 2019
                December 2019
                : 42
                : 12
                : 1973-1990
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Dept of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, Univ. of Würzburg Würzburg Germany
                [2 ]Ecosystem Modeling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), Univ. of Würzburg Würzburg Germany
                Article
                10.1111/ecog.04740
                d2a1af14-fb90-4e74-bafc-76ed65fe479d
                © 2019

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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