Alcohol Consumption and Acute Coronary Syndrome: “In vino Veritas”

To develop a clinical risk prediction tool for estimating the cumulative six month risk of death and death or myocardial infarction to facilitate triage and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. Prospective multinational observational study in which we used multivariable regression to develop a final predictive model, with prospective and external validation. Ninety four hospitals in 14 countries in Europe, North and South America, Australia, and New Zealand. 43,810 patients (21,688 in derivation set; 22,122 in validation set) presenting with acute coronary syndrome with or without ST segment elevation enrolled in the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) study between April 1999 and September 2005. Death and myocardial infarction. 1989 patients died in hospital, 1466 died between discharge and six month follow-up, and 2793 sustained a new non-fatal myocardial infarction. Nine factors independently predicted death and the combined end point of death or myocardial infarction in the period from admission to six months after discharge: age, development (or history) of heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, Killip class, initial serum creatinine concentration, elevated initial cardiac markers, cardiac arrest on admission, and ST segment deviation. The simplified model was robust, with prospectively validated C-statistics of 0.81 for predicting death and 0.73 for death or myocardial infarction from admission to six months after discharge. The external applicability of the model was validated in the dataset from GUSTO IIb (global use of strategies to open occluded coronary arteries). This risk prediction tool uses readily identifiable variables to provide robust prediction of the cumulative six month risk of death or myocardial infarction. It is a rapid and widely applicable method for assessing cardiovascular risk to complement clinical assessment and can guide patient triage and management across the spectrum of patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Although moderate drinking confers a decreased risk of myocardial infarction, the roles of the drinking pattern and type of beverage remain unclear. We studied the association of alcohol consumption with the risk of myocardial infarction among 38,077 male health professionals who were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer at base line. We assessed the consumption of beer, red wine, white wine, and liquor individually every four years using validated food-frequency questionnaires. We documented cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease from 1986 to 1998. During 12 years of follow-up, there were 1418 cases of myocardial infarction. As compared with men who consumed alcohol less than once per week, men who consumed alcohol three to four or five to seven days per week had decreased risks of myocardial infarction (multivariate relative risk, 0.68 [95 percent confidence interval, 0.55 to 0.84] and 0.63 [95 percent confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.74], respectively). The risk was similar among men who consumed less than 10 g of alcohol per drinking day and those who consumed 30 g or more. No single type of beverage conferred additional benefit, nor did consumption with meals. A 12.5-g increase in daily alcohol consumption over a four-year follow-up period was associated with a relative risk of myocardial infarction of 0.78 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.62 to 0.99). Among men, consumption of alcohol at least three to four days per week was inversely associated with the risk of myocardial infarction. Neither the type of beverage nor the proportion consumed with meals substantially altered this association. Men who increased their alcohol consumption by a moderate amount during follow-up had a decreased risk of myocardial infarction. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society