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      Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

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          Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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            Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

            Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
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              Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                (View ORCID Profile)
                Journal
                Diversity and Distributions
                Divers Distrib
                Wiley
                13669516
                March 2018
                March 2018
                December 07 2017
                : 24
                : 3
                : 363-374
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Zoology; Conservation Science Group; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
                [2 ]Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research; University College London; London UK
                [3 ]CONACYT - Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional Unidad Durango; Instituto Politécnico Nacional; Durango Mexico
                [4 ]RSPB Centre for Conservation Science; The Lodge; Sandy UK
                [5 ]Institute of Zoology; Zoological Society of London; London UK
                Article
                10.1111/ddi.12686
                d2be3786-68c1-42dc-a936-ca842ee255e8
                © 2017

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

                http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor

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