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      The climate missing: identifying bodies and preventing disappearances linked to climate change

      article-commentary
      1 , , 2
      BMJ Global Health
      BMJ Publishing Group
      Decision Making, Global Health, Health policy, Public Health

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          Most cited references47

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          The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

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            Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

            Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.
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              Climate, conflict and forced migration

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Glob Health
                BMJ Glob Health
                bmjgh
                bmjgh
                BMJ Global Health
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2059-7908
                2024
                22 February 2024
                : 9
                : 2
                : e014767
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentWilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy , University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
                [2 ]New America , New York City, New York, USA
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Malcolm Araos; malcolm.araos@ 123456utah.edu
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8182-0518
                Article
                bmjgh-2023-014767
                10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014767
                10884247
                38388161
                d35d0419-eb64-4db0-aacb-92ef9f240e4f
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 06 December 2023
                : 04 February 2024
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                decision making,global health,health policy,public health

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