Fine scale distribution of mtDNA haplotypes for the springtail Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni (Collembola) corresponds to an ancient shoreline in Taylor Valley, continental Antarctica

The spatial distribution of genetic markers can be useful both in estimating patterns of gene flow and in reconstructing biogeographic history, particularly when gene genealogies can be estimated. Genealogies based on nonrecombining genetic units such as mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA often consist of geographically separated clades that come into contact in narrow regions. Such phylogeographic breaks are usually assumed to be the result of long-term barriers to gene flow. Here I show that deep phylogeographic breaks can form within a continuously distributed species even when there are no barriers to gene flow. The likelihood of observing phylogeographic breaks increases as the average individual dispersal distance and population size decrease. Those molecular markers that are most likely to show evidence of real geographic barriers are also most likely to show phylogeographic breaks that formed without any barrier to gene flow. These results might provide an explanation as to why some species, such as the greenish warblers (Phylloscopus trochiloides), have phylogeographic breaks in mitochondrial or chloroplast DNA that do not coincide with sudden changes in other traits.

Nested clade phylogeographical analysis (NCPA) has become a common tool in intraspecific phylogeography. To evaluate the validity of its inferences, NCPA was applied to actual data sets with 150 strong a priori expectations, the majority of which had not been analysed previously by NCPA. NCPA did well overall, but it sometimes failed to detect an expected event and less commonly resulted in a false positive. An examination of these errors suggested some alterations in the NCPA inference key, and these modifications reduce the incidence of false positives at the cost of a slight reduction in power. Moreover, NCPA does equally well in inferring events regardless of the presence or absence of other, unrelated events. A reanalysis of some recent computer simulations that are seemingly discordant with these results revealed that NCPA performed appropriately in these simulated samples and was not prone to a high rate of false positives under sampling assumptions that typify real data sets. NCPA makes a posteriori use of an explicit inference key for biological interpretation after statistical hypothesis testing. Alternatives to NCPA that claim that biological inference emerges directly from statistical testing are shown in fact to use an a priori inference key, albeit implicitly. It is argued that the a priori and a posteriori approaches to intraspecific phylogeography are complementary, not contradictory. Finally, cross-validation using multiple DNA regions is shown to be a powerful method of minimizing inference errors. A likelihood ratio hypothesis testing framework has been developed that allows testing of phylogeographical hypotheses, extends NCPA to testing specific hypotheses not within the formal inference key (such as the out-of-Africa replacement hypothesis of recent human evolution) and integrates intra- and interspecific phylogeographical inference.