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      Nonstationary Influence of El Niño on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand

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          Abstract

          Background

          Several factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world's most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.

          Methods and Findings

          We have analysed monthly data for Thailand from 1983 to 1997 using wavelet approaches that can describe nonstationary phenomena and that also allow the quantification of nonstationary associations between time series. We report a strong association between monthly dengue incidence in Thailand and the dynamics of El Niño for the 2–3-y periodic mode. This association is nonstationary, seen only from 1986 to 1992, and appears to have a major influence on the synchrony of dengue epidemics in Thailand.

          Conclusion

          The underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.

          Abstract

          In Thailand, dengue transmission patterns are complex, with El Nino showing an association with some epidemics only; other reasons will need to be found for the initiation of other outbreaks

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          Most cited references 26

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          Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.

          Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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            Dengue: an update.

            This review is an update of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) based on international and Cuban experience. We describe the virus characteristics and risk factors for dengue and DHF, and compare incidence and the case fatality rates in endemic regions (southeast Asia, western Pacific, and the Americas). The clinical picture and the pathogenesis of the severe disease are explained. We also discuss the viral, individual, and environmental factors that determine severe disease. Much more research is necessary to clarify these mechanisms. Also reviewed are methods for viral isolation and the serological, immunohistochemical, and molecular methods applied in the diagnosis of the disease. We describe the status of vaccine development and emphasise that the only alternative that we have today to control the disease is through control of its vector Aedes aegypti.
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              Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease.

              Dengue viruses and malaria protozoa are of increasing global concern in public health. The diseases caused by these pathogens often show regular seasonal patterns in incidence because of the sensitivity of their mosquito vectors to climate. Between years in endemic areas, however, there can be further significant variation in case numbers for which public health systems are generally unprepared. There is an acute need for reliable predictions of within-year and between-year epidemic events. The prerequisite for developing any system of early warning is a detailed understanding of the factors involved in epidemic genesis. In this report we discuss the potential causes of the interepidemic periods in dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangkok and of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a highland area of western Kenya. The alternative causes are distinguished by a retrospective analysis of two unique and contemporaneous 33-year time series of epidemiological and associated meteorological data recorded at these two sites. We conclude that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in these locations.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Academic Editor
                Journal
                PLoS Med
                pmed
                PLoS Medicine
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1549-1277
                1549-1676
                April 2005
                26 April 2005
                : 2
                : 4
                Affiliations
                1CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure ParisFrance
                2IRD UR GEODES BondyFrance
                3LENA-CNRS UPR 640, CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière ParisFrance
                4National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University Canberra, Australian Capital TerritoryAustralia
                University of Michigan United States of America
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author Contributions: BC and SH designed the study. MC and BC analyzed the data. BC, AJM, and SH contributed to the writing of the paper.

                *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: cazelles@ 123456biologie.ens.fr
                Article
                10.1371/journal.pmed.0020106
                1087219
                15839751
                d47f5e9f-b166-49a0-897e-4162db7c27c3
                Copyright: © 2005 Cazelles et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
                Categories
                Research Article
                Infectious Diseases
                Infectious Diseases
                Medicine in Developing Countries

                Medicine

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