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      Development of a Machine Learning Model Predicting an ICU Admission for Patients with Elective Surgery and Its Prospective Validation in Clinical Practice.

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          Abstract

          Frequent utilization of the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is associated with higher costs and decreased availability for patients who urgently need it. Common risk assessment tool, like the ASA score, lack objectivity and do account only for some influencing parameters. The aim of our study was (1) to develop a reliable machine learning model predicting ICU admission risk after elective surgery, and (2) to implement it in a clinical workflow. We used electronic medical records from more than 61,000 patients for modelling. A random forest model outperformed other methods with an area under the curve of 0.91 in the retrospective test set. In the prospective implementation, the model achieved a sensitivity of 73.3% and a specificity of 80.8%. Further research is essential to determine physicians' attitudes to machine learning models and assess the long term improvement of ICU management.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Stud Health Technol Inform
          Studies in health technology and informatics
          IOS Press
          1879-8365
          0926-9630
          Aug 21 2019
          : 264
          Affiliations
          [1 ] CBmed, Graz, Austria.
          [2 ] Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Documentation, Medical University of Graz, Austria.
          [3 ] Steiermärkische Krankenanstaltengesellschaft m.b.H. (KAGes), Graz, Austria.
          Article
          SHTI190206
          10.3233/SHTI190206
          31437908

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