Decreases in global CO\(_2\) emissions due to COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 are of paramount importance for global sustainability. Using a coordinated set of high-resolution sectoral assessment tools, we report a decrease of 4.2% in global CO\(_2\) emission in first quarter of 2020. Our emission estimates reflect near real time inventories of emissions from power generation, transportation, industry, international aviation and maritime sectors in 34 countries that account for >70% of world energy-related CO2 emissions in recent years. Regional variations in CO\(_2\) emissions are significant, with a decrease in China (-9.3%), US (-3.0%), Europe (EU-27 & UK) (-3.3%) and India (-2.4%), respectively. The decline of short-lived gaseous pollutants, such as NO\(_2\) concentration observed by Satellites (-25.73% for China, -4.76% for US) and ground observations (-23% for China) is consistent with the estimates based on energy activity (-23.94% for China, -3.52% for US), but the decline is not seen in satellite assessments of aerosol optical depth (AOD) or dry column CO\(_2\) (XCO\(_2\)). With fast recovery and partial re-opening of national economies, our findings suggest that total annual emissions may drop far less than previously estimated (e.g., by 25% for China and more than 5% for the whole world). However, the longer-term effects on CO\(_2\) emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.