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      Associations between graduated driver licensing and road trauma reductions in a later licensing age jurisdiction: Queensland, Australia

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          Abstract

          The success of driver graduated licensing systems (GLS) is demonstrated primarily in jurisdictions that licence at young ages with requirements expiring at age 18. In Australia, GLS requirements typically apply for all applicants aged under 25. In 2007, the Queensland licensing system was strengthened, extending the learner and introducing a 100-hour supervised driving requirement, introducing restrictions on passenger carriage at night and high-powered vehicles for provisional drivers, and on phone use for all novice drivers (learner and provisional). The objective of the current research was to evaluate whether these changes were associated with reductions in crashes (all) and killed-and-serious-injury (KSI) crashes involving novice drivers, and respective casualties. Government licensing and police crash records were linked and interrupted time series analysis was used to examine potential shifts in crash trends by rates of licensed drivers per month. Substantial declines were found in novice driver crashes (13.1% per year; 95%CI -0.0130, -0.0096), crash casualties (13.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0137, -0.0101), KSI crashes (5.4% per year; 95%CI -0.0080, -0.0046) and associated casualties (5.2% per year; 95%CI -0.0075, -0.0039). Compared to the total licensed driver population, declines in crashes (3.0% per year; 95%CI -0.0027, -0.0007) and crash casualties (2.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0029, -0.0006) but not KSI outcomes were observed. More narrowly, declines were found for provisional-licensed driver crashes (9.3% per year; 95%CI -0.0096, -0.0063) and KSI crashes (3.6% per year; 95%CI -0.0004, -0.0128) that were approximately 2.6% and 1.2% greater than respective declines for 25-29-year-old open-licensed drivers. Substantial declines also were observed in novice driver single-vehicle, night, passenger and alcohol crashes. Overall, these results demonstrate that GLS can be effective in a later age licensing jurisdiction. However, KSI outcomes were limited. Modelling research is recommended on ways to further strengthen Queensland’s GLS to achieve greater trauma reductions.

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          Graduated driver licensing (GDL) in the United States in 2016: A literature review and commentary.

          Allan F Williams (2017)
          This is the sixth in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, the present review covering the period mid-2012 through 2016. In the two decades since GDL programs began to be introduced on a widespread basis in the United States, a vast amount of research has been published. The current review discusses recent research and the present state of knowledge on the following topics: characteristics of the novice driver population; effects of GDL on crashes for ages 16-19; the learner and intermediate periods; night and passenger restrictions; cellphone laws; GDL for older novices; enforcement of GDL rules; and programs attempting to influence GDL compliance and safe driving practices in general. GDL stands out as a successful policy for reducing teen driver crashes and is worth building on to extend its benefits. Strengthening existing GDL programs has the most potential for producing further crash reductions.
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            Driver licensing and reasons for delaying licensure among young adults ages 18-20, United States, 2012

            Brian C Tefft, Allan F Williams, Jurek Grabowski (2014)
            Background Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for teens and young adults in the United States. Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems were designed to protect young novice drivers by limiting their exposure to specific risks while they gain experience driving. In the United States, most states’ GDL systems only apply to new drivers younger than 18. Some experts suggest that GDL might encourage young people to wait until age 18 to obtain a license, to avoid GDL requirements, resulting in older teenagers having less driving experience and higher crash risk than they might have had without GDL. This study examined the prevalence and timing of licensure among young adults, and explored factors associated with delaying licensure among those not licensed before age 18. Methods An online questionnaire was completed by 1,039 persons aged 18-20 years, recruited from a representative panel of United States households. Main outcome measures were acquisition of driver’s license (a) within 12 months of the state minimum age for licensure, (b) before age 18. Associations of timing of licensure with demographic characteristics were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Respondents not licensed before age 18 were asked to rate the importance of various possible reasons for delaying licensure. Results 54% of respondents were licensed before age 18. Blacks (37%; adjusted Prevalence Ratio 0.67, 95% Confidence Interval 0.48–0.93) and Hispanics (29%; adjusted Prevalence Ratio 0.60, 95% Confidence Interval 0.45–0.81) were less likely than non-Hispanic whites (67%) to be licensed before age 18. Lower household income was independently associated with delayed licensure (P < .001). The most common self-reported reasons for not becoming licensed sooner were not having a car, being able to get around without driving, and costs associated with driving. Conclusions There was little evidence that GDL is a major contributor to delayed licensure; however, a substantial minority of young people do not obtain a driver’s license until age 18 or older and thus begin driving outside of the GDL system, which in most states only applies to new drivers younger than 18. More research is needed to investigate the safety of older novice drivers.
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              How did the economic recession (2008–2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

              Fred Wegman, Richard Allsop, Constantinos Antoniou … (2017)
              This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Teresa Senserrick:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6407-9035
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Soufiane Boufous: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Jake Olivier: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Julie Hatfield: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review & editing
                Nicola Christie: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS ONE
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date (Electronic): 25 September 2018
                Publication date Collection: 2018
                Volume: 13
                Issue: 9
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0204107
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Transport and Road Safety Research, School of Aviation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
                [2 ] School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
                UCL, UNITED KINGDOM
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6407-9035
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-17-40036
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204107
                PMC ID: 6155503
                PubMed ID: 30252870
                SO-VID: d512c939-1b49-41d0-b357-3b6441372d3f
                Copyright © © 2018 Senserrick et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 13 November 2017
                Date accepted : 3 September 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 3, Pages: 14
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008915, Department of Transport and Main Roads, Queensland Government;
                Award ID: TMR9815
                This project was funded by the Department of Transport and Main Roads, Queensland Government ( www.tmr.qld.gov.au), contract TMR9815. The funder provided the data for the analyses.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Physical Sciences
                Subject: Chemistry
                Subject: Chemical Compounds
                Subject: Organic Compounds
                Subject: Alcohols
                Subject: Physical Sciences
                Subject: Chemistry
                Subject: Organic Chemistry
                Subject: Organic Compounds
                Subject: Alcohols
                Subject: Engineering and Technology
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                Subject: Transportation Infrastructure
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                Subject: Transportation
                Subject: Transportation Infrastructure
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