Cancer statistics, trends, and multiple primary cancer analyses from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.

Abstract

An overview of cancer statistics and trends for selected cancers and all sites combined are given based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Median age at diagnosis for all sites combined shows a 2-year increase from 1974 through 1978 to 1999 through 2003. Changes in cancer incidence rates from 1975 through 2003 are summarized by annual percent change for time periods determined by joinpoint regression analysis. After initial stability (1975-1979), incidence rates in women for all cancer sites combined increased from 1979 through 2003, although the rate of increase has recently slowed. For men, initial increases in all cancer sites combined (1975-1992) are followed by decreasing incidence rates (1992-1995) and stable trends from 1995 through 2003. Female thyroid cancer shows continued increasing incidence rates from 1981 through 2003. Blacks have the highest incidence and mortality rates for men and women for all cancer sites combined. Based on 2001 through 2003 data, the likelihood of developing cancer during one's lifetime is approximately one in two for men and one in three for women. Five-year relative survival for all stages combined (1996-2002) ranges from 16% for lung to 100% for prostate cancer patients. Cancer survival varies by stage of disease and race, with lower survival in blacks compared with whites. The risk of developing subsequent multiple primary cancers varies from 1% for an initial liver primary diagnosis to 16% for initial bladder cancer primaries. The impact on the future U.S. cancer burden is estimated based on the growing and aging U.S. population. The number of new cancer patients is expected to more than double from 1.36 million in 2000 to almost 3.0 million in 2050.