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      A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections Translated title: Um conto de duas eleições: informação, raciocínio motivado e a economia nas eleições portuguesas de 2011 e 2015

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          Abstract

          A tale of two elections: information, motivated reasoning, and the economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese elections. Economic performance is thought to be a powerful driver of incumbent electoral performance, and GDP growth and unemployment to be the “big two” factors involved. However, while in the 2011 elections, under a profound economic recession and growing unemployment, the Socialist incumbents lost about one-fourth of the electorate, the center-right coalition experienced losses of similar magnitude in 2015 under a recovering economy and growing employment. Why has this happened? I explore three hypotheses: (1) the economy became a less salient issue in 2015; (2) responsibility for economic outcomes became more blurred in 2015; and (3) national economic evaluations were more contaminated by partisanship and affected by cognitive resources and personal economic experiences in 2015.

          Translated abstract

          Um conto de duas eleições: informação, raciocínio motivado e a economia nas eleições portuguesas de 2011 e 2015. Pensa-se que o desempenho da economia é um poderoso factor na explicação do desempenho eleitoral dos partidos do governo, e que o crescimento do PIB e o desemprego são os “dois grandes” factores envolvidos. No entanto, enquanto o Partido Socialista perdeu cerca de um quarto dos votos em 2011 sob uma profunda recessão económica e com o desemprego a crescer, a coligação de centro-direita sofreu perdas semelhantes em 2015 sob uma economia em recuperação e com crescimento do emprego. Por que razão sucedeu isto? Exploro três hipóteses: (1) a economia ter-se-á tornado um tema menos saliente para os eleitores em 2015; (2) a responsabilidade pelos resultados da economia ter-se-á tornado mais difusa em 2015; e (3) as avaliações da evolução da economia por parte dos eleitores foram mais contaminadas pela identificação partidária e mais afetadas pelos seus recursos cognitivos e experiências económicas pessoais em 2015.

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          Most cited references 20

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          Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes

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            Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson

             John Mueller (1970)
            I think [my grandchildren] will be proud of two things. What I did for the Negro and seeing it through in Vietnam for all of Asia. The Negro cost me 15 points in the polls and Vietnam cost me 20.
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              Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information

               Stuart Soroka (2006)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                aso
                Análise Social
                Anál. Social
                Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa (Lisboa, , Portugal )
                0003-2573
                December 2017
                : 0
                : 225
                : 736-758
                Affiliations
                Lisboa orgnameInstituto de Ciências Sociais Portugal pedro.magalhaes@ 123456ics.ulisboa.pt
                Article
                S0003-25732017000400001

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 31, Pages: 23
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