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      Time series analysis and forecasting of chlamydia trachomatis incidence using surveillance data from 2008 to 2019 in Shenzhen, China

      1 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 3 , 4 , 1
      Epidemiology and Infection
      Cambridge University Press
      Chlamydia trachomatis, forecasting, SARIMA

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          Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection has been a major public health threat globally. Monitoring and prediction of CT epidemic status and trends are important for programme planning, allocating resources and assessing impact; however, such activities are limited in China. In this study, we aimed to apply a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence of CT infection in Shenzhen city, China. The monthly incidence of CT between January 2008 and June 2019 in Shenzhen was used to fit and validate the SARIMA model. A seasonal fluctuation and a slightly increasing pattern of a long-term trend were revealed in the time series of CT incidence. The monthly CT incidence ranged from 4.80/100 000 to 21.56/100 000. The mean absolute percentage error value of the optimal model was 8.08%. The SARIMA model could be applied to effectively predict the short-term CT incidence in Shenzhen and provide support for the development of interventions for disease control and prevention.

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          A hybrid neural network and ARIMA model for water quality time series prediction

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            Chlamydia Trachomatis Infection-Associated Risk of Cervical Cancer

            Abstract As whether Chlamydia trachomatis infection increases the risk of cervical cancer is controversial in the literature, we performed a meta-analysis. Based on a comprehensive search of publications in the Medline, Cochrane, and EMBASE databases, we identified and extracted data from all relevant articles examining C. trachomatis infection and the risk of cervical cancer. The quality of each included study was assessed according to the 9-star Newcastle–Ottawa scale. The strength of association between the C. trachomatis and risk of cervical cancer was estimated by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). This review was registered at PROSPERO with registration No. CRD42014015672. A total of 22 studies with 4291 cervical cancer cases and 7628 controls were identified. Overall, C. trachomatis was significantly linked to increased cervical cancer risk in prospective studies (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.88–2.61, P < 0.001), as well as in retrospective studies (OR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.74–2.74, P < 0.001). Additionally, with a multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for HPV and age, C. trachomatis infection was identified as an independent predictor of cervical cancer in 11 studies (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.03–3.01, P = 0.04). Coinfection of human papilloma virus and C. trachomatis has a higher risk of cervical cancer (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 3.15–5.16, P < 0.001). A subgroup analysis based on histological type indicated an elevated risk for both squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 2.00–2.45, P < 0.001), and adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.21–2.15, P = 0.001), in associated with C. trachomatis. Subgroup analysis by where C. trachomatis infection was detected showed a significantly higher risk of cervical cancer associated with C. trachomatis infection detected in serum (OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 2.01–2.42, P < 0.001), cervical tissue blocks (OR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.21–6.83, P = 0.02), and cervical secretion (OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.41–5.20, P = 0.003), especially in serum with no obvious heterogeneity. In conclusion, our novel data demonstrate that individuals infected with C. trachomatis have a higher risk of cervical cancer. Therefore, it is necessary to expand C. trachomatis infection screening and treat women with C. trachomatis promptly, particularly those with human papilloma virus infections. This approach will not only protect against pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility, but may also prevent cervical cancer.
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              China's syphilis epidemic: epidemiology, proximate determinants of spread, and control responses.

              China has experienced an increase in the incidence and prevalence of syphilis that is especially remarkable since this infection was virtually eradicated in the country 50 years ago. The purpose of this analysis is to provide an overview of recent literature on syphilis proximate determinants and potential public health responses. Per capita syphilis burden is greatest in coastal urban China. There are a number of biological, demographic, geographic, and behavioral/social proximate determinants of syphilis spread that distinguish the Chinese syphilis epidemic. These determinants portend the need for intensified syphilis control efforts, including: comprehensive testing and treatment; integration with HIV, sexually transmitted infection, and antenatal services; scale-up of novel rapid syphilis test technology, and multisectorial support. The Chinese central government recently announced a 10-year syphilis plan to provide clear expectations for evaluating the success of local syphilis control programs and integration with HIV testing programs. Further research is needed to understand the social and behavioral determinants driving the spread of syphilis.

                Author and article information

                Epidemiol Infect
                Epidemiol. Infect
                Epidemiology and Infection
                Cambridge University Press (Cambridge, UK )
                17 March 2020
                : 148
                : e76
                [1 ]Department of STD control and prevention, Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control , Shenzhen, Guangdong Province 518020, China
                [2 ]Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, XiangYa School of Public Health, Central South University , Changsha, Hunan Province 410078, China
                [3 ]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Institute of Dermatology , Nanjing, China
                [4 ]National Center for STD Control, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Nanjing, China
                Author notes
                Author for correspondence: X. S. Chen, Y. M. Cai, E-mail: chenxs@ 123456ncstdlc.org , 64165469@ 123456qq.com

                Contribute to the study equally.

                Author information
                © The Author(s) 2020

                This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                : 25 November 2019
                : 13 February 2020
                : 11 March 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 3, References: 37, Pages: 7
                Original Paper

                Public health
                chlamydia trachomatis,forecasting,sarima
                Public health
                chlamydia trachomatis, forecasting, sarima


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