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      Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

      research-article
      GBD Chronic Kidney Disease Collaboration
      Lancet (London, England)
      Elsevier

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          Summary

          Background

          Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

          Methods

          The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

          Findings

          Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

          Interpretation

          Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

          Funding

          Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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          Most cited references52

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          KDIGO 2012 clinical practice guideline for the evaluation and management of chronic kidney disease.

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            Urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality in general population.

            For the general population, the clinical relevance of an increased urinary albumin excretion rate is still debated. Therefore, we examined the relationship between urinary albumin excretion and all-cause mortality and mortality caused by cardiovascular (CV) disease and non-CV disease in the general population. In the period 1997 to 1998, all inhabitants of the city of Groningen, the Netherlands, aged between 28 and 75 years (n=85 421) were sent a postal questionnaire collecting information about risk factors for CV disease and CV morbidity and a vial to collect an early morning urine sample for measurement of urinary albumin concentration (UAC). The vital status of the cohort was subsequently obtained from the municipal register, and the cause of death was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Of these 85 421 subjects, 40 856 (47.8%) responded, and 40 548 could be included in the analysis. During a median follow-up period of 961 days (maximum 1139 days), 516 deaths with known cause were recorded. We found a positive dose-response relationship between increasing UAC and mortality. A higher UAC increased the risk of both CV and non-CV death after adjustment for other well-recognized CV risk factors, with the increase being significantly higher for CV mortality than for non-CV mortality (P=0.014). A 2-fold increase in UAC was associated with a relative risk of 1.29 for CV mortality (95% CI 1.18 to 1.40) and 1.12 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.21) for non-CV mortality. Urinary albumin excretion is a predictor of all-cause mortality in the general population. The excess risk was more attributable to death from CV causes, independent of the effects of other CV risk factors, and the relationship was already apparent at levels of albuminuria currently considered to be normal.
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              The Global Burden of Anemia.

              Anemia is an important cause of health loss. We estimated levels and trends of nonfatal anemia burden for 23 distinct etiologies in 188 countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes from 1990 to 2013. All available population-level anemia data were collected and standardized. We estimated mean hemoglobin, prevalence of anemia by severity, quantitative disability owing to anemia, and underlying etiology for each population using the approach of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2013 Study. Anemia burden is high. Developing countries account for 89% of all anemia-related disability. Iron-deficiency anemia remains the dominant cause of anemia.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                Elsevier
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                29 February 2020
                29 February 2020
                : 395
                : 10225
                : 709-733
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Theo Vos, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98121, USA tvos@ 123456uw.edu
                [** ]Dr Boris Bikbov, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Bergamo 24020, Italy boris@ 123456bikbov.ru
                [†]

                Collaborators listed at end of Article

                Article
                S0140-6736(20)30045-3
                10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30045-3
                7049905
                32061315
                d8790133-84bd-43b8-89b8-02326dcfa2f9
                © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access Article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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                Medicine
                Medicine

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