Short-term forecasting of life-threatening cardiac arrhythmias based on symbolic dynamics and finite-time growth rates

Although heart rate variability (HRV) is altered in a variety of pathological conditions, the association of reduced HRV with risk for new cardiac events has not been studied in a large community-based population. The first 2 hours of ambulatory ECG recordings obtained on subjects of the Framingham Heart Study who were free of clinically apparent coronary heart disease or congestive heart failure were reprocessed to assess HRV. Five frequency-domain measures and three time-domain measures were obtained. The associations between HRV measures and the incidence of new cardiac events (angina pectroris, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or congestive heart failure) were assessed with proportional hazards regression analyses. There were 2501 eligible subjects with a mean age of 53 years. During a mean follow-up of 3.5 years, cardiac events occurred in 58 subjects. After adjustment for age, sex, cigarette smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and other relevant risk factors, all HRV measures except the ratio of low-frequency to high-frequency power were significantly associated with risk for a cardiac event (P = .0016 to .0496). A one-standard deviation decrement in the standard deviation of total normal RR intervals (natural log transformed) was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.47 for new cardiac events (95% confidence interval of 1.16 to 1.86). The estimation of HRV by ambulatory monitoring offers prognostic information beyond that provided by the evaluation of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors.