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      Ural Blocking as an Amplifier of the Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Winter

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      Journal of Climate
      American Meteorological Society

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          The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification.

          The rise in Arctic near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades-a feature known as 'Arctic amplification'. Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have driven Arctic and global average warming; however, the underlying causes of Arctic amplification remain uncertain. The roles of reductions in snow and sea ice cover and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, cloud cover and water vapour are still matters of debate. A better understanding of the processes responsible for the recent amplified warming is essential for assessing the likelihood, and impacts, of future rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss. Here we show that the Arctic warming is strongest at the surface during most of the year and is primarily consistent with reductions in sea ice cover. Changes in cloud cover, in contrast, have not contributed strongly to recent warming. Increases in atmospheric water vapour content, partly in response to reduced sea ice cover, may have enhanced warming in the lower part of the atmosphere during summer and early autumn. We conclude that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice-temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance and human activities in the Arctic.
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            Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation

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              A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                J. Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                April 2017
                April 2017
                : 30
                : 7
                : 2639-2654
                Article
                10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0548.1
                da0f996d-fff3-4897-b7a9-6a3e99a930d7
                © 2017

                http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses

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