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      Predicting First-Year Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease - The UREA5 Study

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          Abstract

          We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for first-year mortality (FYM) in incident dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease. We retrospectively examined patient comorbidities and biochemistry, prior to dialysis initiation, using a single-center, prospectively maintained database from 2005-2010, and analyzed these variables in relation to FYM. A total of 983 patients were studied. 22% had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <45%. FYM was 17%, and independent predictors included <under>UR</under>ate <500 or >600 μmol/l, LV<under>E</under>F <45% (higher odds ratio if <30%), <under>A</under>ge >70 years, <under>A</under>rteriopathies (cerebrovascular and/or peripheral-vascular diseases), serum <under>A</under>lbumin <30 g/l, and <under>A</under>lkaline phosphatase >80 U/l (p < 0.05, C-statistic 0.74), and these constitute the acronym UREA5. Using linear modeling, risk weightage/integer of 3 was assigned to LVEF <30%, 2 to age >70 years, and 1 to each remaining variable. Cumulative UREA5 scores of ≤1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 were associated with FYM of 6, 8, 22, 31, and 46%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Increasing UREA5 scores were strongly associated with stepwise worsening of FYM after dialysis initiation.

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          Functional status of elderly adults before and after initiation of dialysis.

          It is unclear whether functional status before dialysis is maintained after the initiation of this therapy in elderly patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Using a national registry of patients undergoing dialysis, which was linked to a national registry of nursing home residents, we identified all 3702 nursing home residents in the United States who were starting treatment with dialysis between June 1998 and October 2000 and for whom at least one measurement of functional status was available before the initiation of dialysis. Functional status was measured by assessing the degree of dependence in seven activities of daily living (on the Minimum Data Set-Activities of Daily Living [MDS-ADL] scale of 0 to 28 points, with higher scores indicating greater functional difficulty). The median MDS-ADL score increased from 12 during the 3 months before the initiation of dialysis to 16 during the 3 months after the initiation of dialysis. Three months after the initiation of dialysis, functional status had been maintained in 39% of nursing home residents, but by 12 months after the initiation of dialysis, 58% had died and predialysis functional status had been maintained in only 13%. In a random-effects model, the initiation of dialysis was associated with a sharp decline in functional status, indicated by an increase of 2.8 points in the MDS-ADL score (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.0); this decline was independent of age, sex, race, and functional-status trajectory before the initiation of dialysis. The decline in functional status associated with the initiation of dialysis remained substantial (1.7 points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1), even after adjustment for the presence or absence of an accelerated functional decline during the 3-month period before the initiation of dialysis. Among nursing home residents with ESRD, the initiation of dialysis is associated with a substantial and sustained decline in functional status. 2009 Massachusetts Medical Society
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            Stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation with chronic kidney disease.

            Both atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease increase the risk of stroke and systemic thromboembolism. However, these risks, and the effects of antithrombotic treatment, have not been thoroughly investigated in patients with both conditions. Using Danish national registries, we identified all patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation between 1997 and 2008. The risk of stroke or systemic thromboembolism and bleeding associated with non-end-stage chronic kidney disease and with end-stage chronic kidney disease (i.e., disease requiring renal-replacement therapy) was estimated with the use of time-dependent Cox regression analyses. In addition, the effects of treatment with warfarin, aspirin, or both in patients with chronic kidney disease were compared with the effects in patients with no renal disease. Of 132,372 patients included in the analysis, 3587 (2.7%) had non-end-stage chronic kidney disease and 901 (0.7%) required renal-replacement therapy at the time of inclusion. As compared with patients who did not have renal disease, patients with non-end-stage chronic kidney disease had an increased risk of stroke or systemic thromboembolism (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 1.59; P<0.001), as did those requiring renal-replacement therapy (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.57 to 2.14; P<0.001); this risk was significantly decreased for both groups of patients with warfarin but not with aspirin. The risk of bleeding was also increased among patients who had non-end-stage chronic kidney disease or required renal-replacement therapy and was further increased with warfarin, aspirin, or both. Chronic kidney disease was associated with an increased risk of stroke or systemic thromboembolism and bleeding among patients with atrial fibrillation. Warfarin treatment was associated with a decreased risk of stroke or systemic thromboembolism among patients with chronic kidney disease, whereas warfarin and aspirin were associated with an increased risk of bleeding. (Funded by the Lundbeck Foundation.).
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              Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study: baseline characteristics and associations with kidney function.

              The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study was established to examine risk factors for the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with CKD. We examined baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Seven clinical centers recruited adults who were aged 21 to 74 yr and had CKD using age-based estimated GFR (eGFR) inclusion criteria. At baseline, blood and urine specimens were collected and information regarding health behaviors, diet, quality of life, and functional status was obtained. GFR was measured using radiolabeled iothalamate in one third of participants. A total of 3612 participants were enrolled with mean age +/- SD of 58.2 +/- 11.0 yr; 46% were women, and 47% had diabetes. Overall, 45% were non-Hispanic white, 46% were non-Hispanic black, and 5% were Hispanic. Eighty-six percent reported hypertension, 22% coronary disease, and 10% heart failure. Mean body mass index was 32.1 +/- 7.9 kg/m(2), and 47% had a BP >130/80 mmHg. Mean eGFR was 43.4 +/- 13.5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and median (interquartile range) protein excretion was 0.17 g/24 h (0.07 to 0.81 g/24 h). Lower eGFR was associated with older age, lower socioeconomic and educational level, cigarette smoking, self-reported CVD, peripheral arterial disease, and elevated BP. Lower level of eGFR was associated with a greater burden of CVD as well as lower socioeconomic and educational status. Long-term follow-up of participants will provide critical insights into the epidemiology of CKD and its relationship to adverse outcomes.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BPU
                Blood Purif
                10.1159/issn.0253-5068
                Blood Purification
                S. Karger AG
                0253-5068
                1421-9735
                2014
                May 2014
                26 February 2014
                : 37
                : 2
                : 85-92
                Affiliations
                aDivision of Nephrology, University Medicine Cluster, and bDepartment of Laboratory Medicine, National University Hospital, cDepartment of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and dSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
                Author notes
                *Dr. Horng-Ruey Chua, University Medicine Cluster, National University Health System, Level 10 NUHS Tower Block, 1E Kent Ridge Road, Singapore 119228 (Singapore), E-Mail horng_ruey_chua@nuhs.edu.sg
                Article
                357640 Blood Purif 2014;37:85-92
                10.1159/000357640
                24589505
                db63b270-9a85-41fc-96a6-0173f3ee1ec4
                © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel

                Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

                History
                : 19 September 2013
                : 26 November 2013
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 4, Pages: 8
                Categories
                Original Paper

                Cardiovascular Medicine,Nephrology
                Cerebrovascular disease,End-stage renal disease,Early mortality,Hyperuricemia,Hypoalbuminemia,Incident dialysis,Left ventricular dysfunction,Peripheral vascular disease,Alkaline phosphatase,Cardiovascular disease

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