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      Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?

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          Abstract

          The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualised through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.

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          Author and article information

          Contributors
          Journal
          ecopol
          Oxford Review of Economic Policy
          Oxford University Press (UK )
          0266-903X
          1460-2121
          08 May 2020
          : graa015
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
          [2 ] London School of Economics and Political Science
          [3 ] Columbia University
          [4 ] University of Cambridge
          Author notes
          Article
          graa015
          10.1093/oxrep/graa015
          7239121
          db8513a6-0009-4126-a3d6-95d5f7b2932b
          © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

          This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model ( https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

          This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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          AcademicSubjects/SOC00720
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          accepted-manuscript

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