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      A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction

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          Abstract

          Background and objective

          Heart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

          Methods

          From 2012 to 2017, Clinical information of 1208 consecutive patients who had LVEF< 50% and underwent isolated CABG was collected to establish a derivation cohort. A novel nomogram was developed using the logistic regression model to predict postoperative AKI among these patients. According to the same inclusion criteria and the same period, we extracted the data of patients from 6 other large cardiac centers in China ( n = 540) from the China Heart Failure Surgery Registry (China-HFSR) database for external validation of the new model. The nomogram was compared with 3 other available models predicting renal failure after cardiac surgery in terms of calibration, discrimination and net benefit.

          Results

          In the derivation cohort ( n = 1208), 90 (7.45%) patients were diagnosed with postoperative AKI. The nomogram included 7 independent risk factors: female, increased preoperative creatinine(> 2 mg/dL), LVEF< 35%, previous myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) used and perioperative blood transfusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.738, higher than the other 3 models. By comparing calibration curves and decision curve analyses (DCA) with other models, the novel nomogram showed better calibration and greater net benefit. Among the 540 patients in the validation cohort, 104 (19.3%) had postoperative AKI, and the novel nomogram performed better with respect to calibration, discrimination and net benefit.

          Conclusions

          The novel nomogram is a reliable model to predict postoperative AKI following isolated CABG for patients with impaired LVEF.

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          Most cited references23

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          2016 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure: The Task Force for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). Developed with the special contribution of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC.

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            2013 ACCF/AHA Guideline for the Management of Heart Failure: Executive Summary

            Circulation, 128(16), 1810-1852
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              A clinical score to predict acute renal failure after cardiac surgery.

              The risk of mortality associated with acute renal failure (ARF) after open-heart surgery continues to be distressingly high. Accurate prediction of ARF provides an opportunity to develop strategies for early diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical score to predict postoperative ARF by incorporating the effect of all of its major risk factors. A total of 33,217 patients underwent open-heart surgery at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation (1993 to 2002). The primary outcome was ARF that required dialysis. The scoring model was developed in a randomly selected test set (n = 15,838) and was validated on the remaining patients. Its predictive accuracy was compared by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The score ranges between 0 and 17 points. The ARF frequency at each score level in the validation set fell within the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the corresponding frequency in the test set. Four risk categories of increasing severity (scores 0 to 2, 3 to 5, 6 to 8, and 9 to 13) were formed arbitrarily. The frequency of ARF across these categories in the test set ranged between 0.5 and 22.1%. The score was also valid in predicting ARF across all risk categories. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score in the test set was 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.83) and was similar to that in the validation set (0.82; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.85; P = 0.39). In conclusion, a score is valid and accurate in predicting ARF after open-heart surgery; along with increasing its clinical utility, the score can help in planning future clinical trials of ARF.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                lancetlin@126.com , hjf2006111@126.com
                Journal
                BMC Cardiovasc Disord
                BMC Cardiovasc Disord
                BMC Cardiovascular Disorders
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2261
                10 December 2020
                10 December 2020
                2020
                : 20
                Affiliations
                GRID grid.506261.6, ISNI 0000 0001 0706 7839, Cardiac Surgery Centre, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, ; No. 167, North Lishi street, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100037 China
                Article
                1799
                10.1186/s12872-020-01799-1
                7731767
                33302875
                dbf9c538-05bc-4819-9b96-c121f04bf481
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                Funding
                Funded by: The 13th Five-year National Science and Technology Major Project of China
                Award ID: 2016YFC1300900
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Cardiovascular Medicine
                aki,nomogram,heart failure,cabg,prediction model
                Cardiovascular Medicine
                aki, nomogram, heart failure, cabg, prediction model

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