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      Decision-making after continuous wins or losses in a randomized guessing task: implications for how the prior selection results affect subsequent decision-making

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          Abstract

          Background

          Human decision-making is often affected by prior selections and their outcomes, even in situations where decisions are independent and outcomes are unpredictable.

          Methods

          In this study, we created a task that simulated real-life non-strategic gambling to examine the effect of prior outcomes on subsequent decisions in a group of male college students.

          Results

          Behavioral performance showed that participants needed more time to react after continuous losses (LOSS) than continuous wins (WIN) and discontinuous outcomes (CONTROL). In addition, participants were more likely to repeat their selections in both WIN and LOSS conditions. Functional MRI data revealed that decisions in WINs were associated with increased activation in the mesolimbic pathway, but decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus relative to LOSS. Increased prefrontal cortical activation was observed during LOSS relative to WIN and CONTROL conditions.

          Conclusion

          Taken together, the behavioral and neuroimaging findings suggest that participants tended to repeat previous selections during LOSS trials, a pattern resembling the gambler’s fallacy. However, during WIN trials, participants tended to follow their previous lucky decisions, like the ‘hot hand’ fallacy.

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          Most cited references33

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          FMRI visualization of brain activity during a monetary incentive delay task.

          Comparative studies have implicated striatal and mesial forebrain circuitry in the generation of autonomic, endocrine, and behavioral responses for incentives. Using blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging, we sought to visualize functional activation of these regions in 12 normal volunteers as they anticipated and responded for monetary incentives. Both individual and group analyses of time-series data revealed significant activation of striatal and mesial forebrain structures (including insula, caudate, putamen, and mesial prefrontal cortex) during trials involving both monetary rewards and punishments. In addition to these areas, during trials involving punishment, group analysis revealed activation foci in the anterior cingulate and thalamus. These results corroborate comparative studies which implicate striatal and mesial forebrain circuitry in the elaboration of incentive-driven behavior. This report also introduces a new paradigm for probing the functional integrity of this circuitry in humans.
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            Dissociation of reward anticipation and outcome with event-related fMRI.

            Reward processing involves both appetitive and consummatory phases. We sought to examine whether reward anticipation vs outcomes would recruit different regions of ventral forebrain circuitry using event-related fMRI. Nine healthy volunteers participated in a monetary incentive delays task in which they either responded to a cued target for monetary reward, responded to a cued target for no reward, or did not respond to a cued target during scanning. Multiple regression analyses indicated that while anticipation of reward vs non-reward activated foci in the ventral striatum, reward vs non-reward outcomes activated foci in the ventromedial frontal cortex. These findings suggest that reward anticipation and outcomes may differentially recruit distinct regions that lie along the trajectory of ascending dopamine projections.
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              Neural signatures of economic preferences for risk and ambiguity.

              People often prefer the known over the unknown, sometimes sacrificing potential rewards for the sake of surety. Overcoming impulsive preferences for certainty in order to exploit uncertain but potentially lucrative options may require specialized neural mechanisms. Here, we demonstrate by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that individuals' preferences for risk (uncertainty with known probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertainty with unknown probabilities) predict brain activation associated with decision making. Activation within the lateral prefrontal cortex was predicted by ambiguity preference and was also negatively correlated with an independent clinical measure of behavioral impulsiveness, suggesting that this region implements contextual analysis and inhibits impulsive responses. In contrast, activation of the posterior parietal cortex was predicted by risk preference. Together, this novel double dissociation indicates that decision making under ambiguity does not represent a special, more complex case of risky decision making; instead, these two forms of uncertainty are supported by distinct mechanisms.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Behav Brain Funct
                Behav Brain Funct
                Behavioral and Brain Functions : BBF
                BioMed Central
                1744-9081
                2014
                3 April 2014
                : 10
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Psychology, Zhejiang Normal University, 688 Yingbin Road, Jinhua, Zhejiang, P.R. China
                [2 ]Department of Physics, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Magnetic Resonance, East China Normal University, Shanghai, P.R. China
                Article
                1744-9081-10-11
                10.1186/1744-9081-10-11
                4234378
                24708897
                dc6a46c8-cabc-42aa-9460-e9d481541c64
                Copyright © 2014 Dong et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 28 December 2013
                : 25 March 2014
                Categories
                Research

                Neurology
                Neurology

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