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      Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

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          Abstract

          The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020.

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          Author and article information

          Contributors
          Journal
          Int J Infect Dis
          Int. J. Infect. Dis
          International Journal of Infectious Diseases
          The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
          1201-9712
          1878-3511
          22 April 2020
          22 April 2020
          Affiliations
          [a ]Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
          [b ]JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
          [c ]Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
          [d ]Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
          [e ]Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
          [f ]School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
          [g ]College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
          Author notes
          Article
          S1201-9712(20)30259-9
          10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
          7194543
          32334115
          © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

          Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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