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      Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries

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          Summary

          Background

          Public health measures to prevent, detect, and respond to events are essential to control public health risks, including infectious disease outbreaks, as highlighted in the International Health Regulations (IHR). In light of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we aimed to review existing health security capacities against public health risks and events.

          Methods

          We used 18 indicators from the IHR State Party Annual Reporting (SPAR) tool and associated data from national SPAR reports to develop five indices: (1) prevent, (2) detect, (3) respond, (4) enabling function, and (5) operational readiness. We used SPAR 2018 data for all of the indicators and categorised countries into five levels across the indices, in which level 1 indicated the lowest level of national capacity and level 5 the highest. We also analysed data at the regional level (using the six geographical WHO regions).

          Findings

          Of 182 countries, 52 (28%) had prevent capacities at levels 1 or 2, and 60 (33%) had response capacities at levels 1 or 2. 81 (45%) countries had prevent capacities and 78 (43%) had response capacities at levels 4 or 5, indicating that these countries were operationally ready. 138 (76%) countries scored more highly in the detect index than in the other indices. 44 (24%) countries did not have an effective enabling function for public health risks and events, including infectious disease outbreaks (7 [4%] at level 1 and 37 [20%] at level 2). 102 (56%) countries had level 4 or level 5 enabling function capacities in place. 32 (18%) countries had low readiness (2 [1%] at level 1 and 30 [17%] at level 2), and 104 (57%) countries were operationally ready to prevent, detect, and control an outbreak of a novel infectious disease (66 [36%] at level 4 and 38 [21%] at level 5).

          Interpretation

          Countries vary widely in terms of their capacity to prevent, detect, and respond to outbreaks. Half of all countries analysed have strong operational readiness capacities in place, which suggests that an effective response to potential health emergencies could be enabled, including to COVID-19. Findings from local risk assessments are needed to fully understand national readiness capacities in relation to COVID-19. Capacity building and collaboration between countries are needed to strengthen global readiness for outbreak control.

          Funding

          None.

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          Most cited references14

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          Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

          Summary Background A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. Methods All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. Findings By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.
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            A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019

            Summary In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.)
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              Another Decade, Another Coronavirus

              For the third time in as many decades, a zoonotic coronavirus has crossed species to infect human populations. This virus, provisionally called 2019-nCoV, was first identified in Wuhan, China, in persons exposed to a seafood or wet market. The rapid response of the Chinese public health, clinical, and scientific communities facilitated recognition of the clinical disease and initial understanding of the epidemiology of the infection. First reports indicated that human-to-human transmission was limited or nonexistent, but we now know that such transmission occurs, although to what extent remains unknown. Like outbreaks caused by two other pathogenic human respiratory coronaviruses (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus [MERS-CoV]), 2019-nCoV causes respiratory disease that is often severe. 1 As of January 24, 2020, there were more than 800 reported cases, with a mortality rate of 3% (https://promedmail.org/). As now reported in the Journal, Zhu et al. 2 have identified and characterized 2019-nCoV. The viral genome has been sequenced, and these results in conjunction with other reports show that it is 75 to 80% identical to the SARS-CoV and even more closely related to several bat coronaviruses. 3 It can be propagated in the same cells that are useful for growing SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, but notably, 2019-nCoV grows better in primary human airway epithelial cells than in standard tissue-culture cells, unlike SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. Identification of the virus will allow the development of reagents to address key unknowns about this new coronavirus infection and guide the development of antiviral therapies. First, knowing the sequence of the genome facilitates the development of sensitive quantitative reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction assays to rapidly detect the virus. Second, the development of serologic assays will allow assessment of the prevalence of the infection in humans and in potential zoonotic sources of the virus in wet markets and other settings. These reagents will also be useful for assessing whether the human infection is more widespread than originally thought, since wet markets are present throughout China. Third, having the virus in hand will spur efforts to develop antiviral therapies and vaccines, as well as experimental animal models. Much still needs to be learned about this infection. Most important, the extent of interhuman transmission and the spectrum of clinical disease need to be determined. Transmission of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV occurred to a large extent by means of superspreading events. 4,5 Superspreading events have been implicated in 2019-nCoV transmission, but their relative importance is unknown. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infect intrapulmonary epithelial cells more than cells of the upper airways. 4,6 Consequently, transmission occurs primarily from patients with recognized illness and not from patients with mild, nonspecific signs. It appears that 2019-nCoV uses the same cellular receptor as SARS-CoV (human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 [hACE2]), 3 so transmission is expected only after signs of lower respiratory tract disease develop. SARS-CoV mutated over the 2002–2004 epidemic to better bind to its cellular receptor and to optimize replication in human cells, enhancing virulence. 7 Adaptation readily occurs because coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases, making mutations and recombination events frequent. By contrast, MERS-CoV has not mutated substantially to enhance human infectivity since it was detected in 2012. 8 It is likely that 2019-nCoV will behave more like SARS-CoV and further adapt to the human host, with enhanced binding to hACE2. Consequently, it will be important to obtain as many temporally and geographically unrelated clinical isolates as possible to assess the degree to which the virus is mutating and to assess whether these mutations indicate adaptation to the human host. Furthermore, if 2019-nCoV is similar to SARS-CoV, the virus will spread systemically. 9 Obtaining patient samples at autopsy will help elucidate the pathogenesis of the infection and modify therapeutic interventions rationally. It will also help validate results obtained from experimental infections of laboratory animals. A second key question is identification of the zoonotic origin of the virus. Given its close similarity to bat coronaviruses, it is likely that bats are the primary reservoir for the virus. SARS-CoV was transmitted to humans from exotic animals in wet markets, whereas MERS-CoV is transmitted from camels to humans. 10 In both cases, the ancestral hosts were probably bats. Whether 2019-nCoV is transmitted directly from bats or by means of intermediate hosts is important to understand and will help define zoonotic transmission patterns. A striking feature of the SARS epidemic was that fear played a major role in the economic and social consequences. Although specific anticoronaviral therapies are still in development, we now know much more about how to control such infections in the community and hospitals, which should alleviate some of this fear. Transmission of 2019-nCoV probably occurs by means of large droplets and contact and less so by means of aerosols and fomites, on the basis of our experience with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. 4,5 Public health measures, including quarantining in the community as well as timely diagnosis and strict adherence to universal precautions in health care settings, were critical in controlling SARS and MERS. Institution of similar measures will be important and, it is hoped, successful in reducing the transmission of 2019-nCoV.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                18 March 2020
                28 March-3 April 2020
                18 March 2020
                : 395
                : 10229
                : 1047-1053
                Affiliations
                [a ]World Health Organisation, WHO Health Emergency Program, Geneva, Switzerland
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Nirmal Kandel, World Health Organisation, WHO Health Emergency Program, Geneva 1211, Switzerland kandeln@ 123456who.int
                Article
                S0140-6736(20)30553-5
                10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30553-5
                7271261
                32199075
                dd1657cc-e884-4504-98ba-fddaeecab0e6
                © 2020 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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