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      Evidence of Protective Role of Ultraviolet-B (UVB) Radiation in Reducing COVID-19 Deaths

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      medRxiv

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          Abstract

          Background: Research is ongoing to identify an effective way to prevent or treat COVID-19, but thus far these efforts have not yet identified a possible solution. Prior studies indicate the protective role of Ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation in human health, mediated by vitamin D synthesis. In this study, we empirically outline a negative association of UVB radiation as measured by ultraviolet index (UVI) with the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 (COVID-19 deaths). Methods: We carry out an observational study, applying a fixed-effect log-linear regression model to a panel dataset of 152 countries over a period of 108 days (n=6524). We use the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths and case-fatality rate (CFR) as the main dependent variables to test our hypothesis and isolate UVI effect from potential confounding factors such as underlying time trends, country-specific time-constant and time-varying factors such as weather. Findings: After controlling for time-constant and time-varying factors, we find that a permanent unit increase in UVI is associated with a 1.2 percentage points decline in daily growth rates of cumulative COVID-19 deaths [p < 0.01] as well as a 1.0 percentage points decline in the daily growth rates of CFR [p < 0.05]. These results represent a significant percentage reduction in terms of the daily growth rates of cumulative COVID-19 deaths (-11.88%) and CFR (-38.46%). Our results are consistent across different model specifications. Interpretation: We find a significant negative association between UVI and COVID-19 deaths, indicating evidence of the protective role of UVB in mitigating COVID-19 deaths. If confirmed via clinical studies, then the possibility of mitigating COVID-19 deaths via sensible sunlight exposure or vitamin D intervention will be very attractive because it is cost-effective and widely available.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          medRxiv
          May 12 2020
          Article
          10.1101/2020.05.06.20093419
          ddda0c8d-e9c0-4e5f-8282-43a8692a9f86
          © 2020
          History

          Evolutionary Biology,Medicine
          Evolutionary Biology, Medicine

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